Dem
49
GOP
51
We've got one piece of (potentially) bad news on this front, and one piece of (potentially) good news. Most people prefer to hear the bad news first, so we'll start there. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was asked yesterday if he would certify a Kamala Harris victory in the upcoming election. The correct answer to that question is "yes." This, of course, is not the answer he gave. Instead, he offered up the answer that is standard for most Republicans these days: "Well of course—if we have a free, fair, and safe election we're gonna follow the Constitution, absolutely."
This sort of qualified answer is absolutely unnecessary. Should there be compelling evidence of chicanery, nobody expects the Congress to look the other way, and there are procedures in place for addressing the problem. There are only two reasons that Johnson would choose to give something less than the Full Sherman answer (which, again, is "yes"). The less damning is that he has to play along with Donald Trump's "stop the steal" fantasies, because that's what it takes to be in "leadership" in the Republican Party right now. The more damning is that he's a part of the plotting, planning and scheming, and he's helping lay the groundwork for cheating, should Trump lose the election.
So that is the bad news, that Mike Johnson apparently has much less of a spine than Mike Pence. Now the good news. We had been meaning to write a bit more about the machinations of the Georgia Election Board, and then reader G.G. in Shreveport, LA gave us the heads up that Anna Bower at Lawfare beat us to it.
The executive summary (and consider reading the entire linked article) is that the Georgia Elections Board isn't actually going to help very much, or at all, in terms of helping Trump to steal the state's EVs. To start, the new ballot-counting rule creates some potential to drag things out. It MAY even encourage some local officials to commence "investigations" (which probably aren't legal). However, Georgia state law makes very clear that the returns have to be submitted within a week of Election Day, at the very latest. Any officials who did not comply would be hauled into court instantly, and told to provide the ballot counts, or face imprisonment. And even if a person was, or several people were, willing to take a metaphorical bullet for Trump, and to spend some time behind bars, the ballots and machines still exist, and the numbers could quickly be harvested by a court-appointed referee.
All of this would be true of anyone else, at any point in the process, who might be tempted to abrogate their duties. And there is plenty of time—again, given that courts give these matters top priority—built into the process to turn the legal screws on anyone who might try to reinvent the rules (up to and including a state legislature that steps in and decides to "award" the EVs to Trump).
Even in the worst-case scenario, it is worth noting that Team Trump may well be operating under a rather serious error of constitutional law. Many people have said, or written, that if no candidate gets 270 EVs, then the election will be sent to the House for a contingent election. This is simply not correct. In fact, the contingent election happens if no candidate gets at least 50.1% of the ascertained electoral votes. Imagine this situation: Georgia's 16 EVs are disputed, beyond the date the electors meet (December 17). Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, the one Nebraska EV, and the safe blue states. That would put her at 262 EVs. Then, Trump wins Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, the one Maine EV, and the safe red states. That would put him at 260 EVs. With Georgia's 16 EVs rendered moot by the terms of U.S. election law, there would only be 522 EVs available, and it would require 261 EVs to win. So, Harris would be elected in this scenario.
The conclusion here is something we've written many times: It is plausible to steal an election BEFORE ballots are cast, by kicking people off voter rolls, requiring ID/proof of citizenship, reducing the number of polling places in minority communities, intimidating voters, etc. It is nearly impossible to steal an election AFTER ballots are cast; there are just too many safeguards. And while it is true that Trump and his acolytes have had 4 more years to plan, as compared to 2020, so too have the people who would protect democracy. (Z)