Dem
49
GOP
51
On Sunday, the Sinclair Broadcast Group aired an interview with Donald Trump, conducted by Sharyl Attkisson. Attkisson is a partisan hack pretending to be an investigative journalist, not unlike John Solomon, but she did manage to produce one potentially newsworthy moment. She inquired whether a 2028 run is in the cards, if this year's run is not successful, and Trump said: "No, I don't. No, I don't. I think that... that will be, that will be it. I don't see that at all. I think that hopefully we're gonna be successful."
Now, it is true that Trump said something similar in 2020, along the lines of "If Biden wins, you won't hear from me anymore." Obviously, that was not the truth. And it's certainly possible that Trump is lying now, or that he really feels this way at the moment, but that he might change his mind later.
That said, we are inclined to think that this is the rare example of some truth issuing forth from The Donald. His heart does not seem to be in campaigning, rallies, etc. anymore, as indicated—most obviously—by the listless acceptance speech at the RNC. Maybe he is bored of it all, and is no longer getting the adrenaline rush he once got from adoring crowds. Maybe the crowds aren't as large and adoring anymore. Or maybe he's freaked out by the assassination attempts. Actually, it could well be all of the above.
Beyond that, among Trump's major goals—and, very possibly, his only goals—in 2024 are: (1) shore up his finances, and (2) stay out of prison. By 2028, he will either have been saved financially by the Truth Media stock sale and other grifts (like the newly introduced crypto exchange and even more newly introduced "collectible coins"), or he will be in ruins. Similarly, by 2028, he will have either beaten the rap the old-fashioned way (with lots of lawyers and longshot legal arguments) or he'll be in prison.
And then, on top of that, add that Trump is 78 years old and is slipping. Just this week, he lit into Tonight Show host Jimmy Fallon, and said that NBC should bring Johnny Carson back as host. "Where is Johnny Carson? Bring back Johnny," were his exact words. There are a couple of problems with that plan. The first is that Carson retired from the gig in 1992, and said he would not return under any circumstances. The second is that he died in 2005, which means he's probably gonna stick with that promise. Needless to say, whatever is deteriorating/has deteriorated in Trump is not going to benefit from another 4 years up against Father Time.
David Frum was on CNN earlier this week, and during a discussion of Trump's statement that he's not going to run in 2028, Frum said this, which is largely in agreement with our take:
Trump is pre-losing. He's losing in his own mind.
That's why he's desperately selling silver coins when he should be campaigning. That's why Mike Johnson is ignoring Donald Trump's demands and threats and keeping the government open. The speaker is keeping the government open when Trump wants the government shut.
That's why his wife is hawking this book and that's why he seems so depressed every time you see him. He is tasting defeat. He knows what's happening and he can't exert himself or mobilize himself in order to do anything.
That's why he's doing so few events. He's listless, he's lethargic, and he's losing in his own mind. His world is crashing in on him. He's pre-losing.
As you evaluate, keep in mind that Frum is a conservative insider, and well dialed into American politics. On the other hand, he IS an anti-Trumper and... a Canadian, so there are also some pretty good arguments for taking his assessment with a few grains of salt. That said, we think he has the right of it.
We think it's particularly important that Trump has now said, numerous times, things like "If I lose," "Hopefully I don't lose," etc. That is a posture that was almost entirely absent in 2020. If he is allowing for the possibility of defeat, that could certainly affect his campaigning. It might even presage the possibility that, if he's clearly defeated, he doesn't put up quite the fight that everyone is expecting. (Z)