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As president, one of Donald Trump's most joyous achievements was sticking it to voters in blue states, in particular to well-off suburban voters who have been fleeing the Republican Party in droves of late. His technique was to ask Congress to change the tax laws to limit the federal tax deduction for state and local (property and income) taxes (SALT) to $10,000. Previously it was unlimited. This hit blue-state voters much harder than (low-tax) red state voters. In other words, it was magic. Effectively, a tax increase for Democrats without increasing taxes on most Republicans. Wonderful, no?
Maybe not. For the presidential election, it is still true that the limitation on SALT does not hurt Trump much. But there are about a dozen House races in rich blue states where the SALT limit is hurting the Republican candidates because the Democratic candidates are making the elimination of the $10,000 limit a big part of their campaigns. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-NY) talks about this so much, he has been nicknamed Mr. SALT. If the Democrats win the trifecta, they are very likely to do precisely that.
This puts Trump in a bind. While he loved the idea of punishing well-off suburban Democrats in blue states, he is now afraid that his position might cost Republicans the House. If he wins the White House but Democrats control either chamber of Congress, they are going to block all his legislation and make it impossible to pass the budget he wants.
Currently there are 16 House districts that Joe Biden won but which are represented in the House by a Republican. Ten of these are in New York, New Jersey, and California, all states with high state and local taxes. The Republican House incumbents in those districts are being squeezed. Trump has responded by flipping 180 degrees and saying that he now wants his signature achievement, and the one that gave him the most joy, to be obliterated. He has to hope the voters believe him.
Meanwhile, back in the House, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is trying to pass a budget. His members in those 16 districts want the budget to remove the $10,000 limit so they can vote for its removal and then campaign on it. Members from deep-red districts absolutely do not want a tax cut focused on well-off suburbanites in high-tax blue states. It could get messy. (V)