Dem
50
GOP
50
There is an awful lot of variability here. For example, in Michigan, Emerson has Harris +1 and Morning Consult has Harris +8. They can't both be right but we won't know who is right until about Nov. 6. Same problem in Nevada. Probably they have different models of the electorate. Our hope is that by averaging so many polls together, the methodological errors will cancel out.
| State | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | 48% | 47% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| Arizona | 49% | 50% | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Emerson Coll. |
| California | 60% | 29% | Aug 29 | Sep 09 | Public Policy Inst. of Calif. |
| Colorado | 53% | 42% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| Florida | 47% | 50% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| Georgia | 48% | 49% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| Georgia | 48% | 50% | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Emerson Coll. |
| Maryland | 61% | 33% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| Maryland | 64% | 33% | Sep 16 | Sep 17 | PPP |
| Michigan | 50% | 49% | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Emerson Coll. |
| Michigan | 52% | 44% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| Minnesota | 50% | 43% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| North Carolina | 45% | 49% | Sep 16 | Sep 18 | Victory Insights |
| North Carolina | 49% | 47% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| North Carolina | 50% | 49% | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Emerson Coll. |
| Nevada | 49% | 49% | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Emerson Coll. |
| Nevada | 51% | 47% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| New York | 55% | 42% | Sep 11 | Sep 16 | Siena Coll. |
| Ohio | 43% | 52% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| Pennsylvania | 48% | 48% | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | Braun Research |
| Pennsylvania | 48% | 48% | Sep 12 | Sep 16 | George Mason U. |
| Pennsylvania | 49% | 46% | Sep 04 | Sep 15 | Franklin + Marshall Coll. |
| Pennsylvania | 49% | 47% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| Pennsylvania | 50% | 46% | Sep 11 | Sep 16 | Siena Coll. |
| Pennsylvania | 50% | 49% | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Emerson Coll. |
| Texas | 46% | 50% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| Virginia | 51% | 44% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |
| Wisconsin | 49% | 50% | Sep 15 | Sep 18 | Emerson Coll. |
| Wisconsin | 50% | 44% | Sep 09 | Sep 18 | Morning Consult |