Dem
49
GOP
51
The three northern blue-wall states are crucial to the election. Donald Trump won all three in 2016 and along with them, the presidency. Joe Biden won all three in 2020 and also the presidency. It's not an accident.
In some ways, all three are very similar They are all whiter and older than the country as a whole. None have many immigrants. All have stagnant populations. They have relatively few college graduates. All used to be manufacturing powerhouses but are no longer. The term "Rust Belt" wasn't pulled out of thin air. By far the biggest demographic is white Christians, most of whom are Republicans.
On paper, Wisconsin is the toughest nut of the three to crack for the Democrats. Its biggest county, Milwaukee, is only half as populous as the counties containing Philadelphia and Detroit. Republicans do better in the WOW counties outside Milwaukee (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) than any other suburban counties north of the Mason-Dixon line. Finally, Wisconsin is the least unionized of the three states.
But despite all this, many strategists see Wisconsin as the easiest of the three states for Harris. One reason is the enormous growth around Madison recently. Dane County is the fastest growing county in the state and is becoming ever more blue. In the 2023 state Supreme Court race, the Democrat got 82% of the vote in the county. Also, Democrats do much better in Wisconsin in the small cities than in the other states, especially in Eau Claire, Appleton, La Crosse and the counties around Green Bay.
One factor that makes Wisconsin easier for Harris than Michigan is the Arab-American population around Dearborn. Wisconsin has few Arab-Americans. Another is that the U.S. car companies have been slow to embrace electric cars, so Harris' push for electric cars might hurt Detroit. Still, Michigan has some plus points for Harris as well. In 2022, 70% of college-educated women voted for Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI). Black women across the state were excited when Biden passed the baton to Harris.
This leaves Pennsylvania as the toughest for Harris. Exit polls show that Trump won white working-class voters there by a bigger margin than in the other states. This is probably because the loss of manufacturing jobs in Pennsylvania has been more brutal than elsewhere. The Pittsburgh Steelers didn't get that name out of the blue. Some of the jobs in the steel mills have been replaced, but older steel workers aren't ideal candidates for jobs in healthcare, financial services, higher education, and robotics. And of course, an old white guy like Biden was a better fit demographically than a younger Black woman. (V)