Dem
49
GOP
51
For Kamala Harris, North Carolina is not the dessert. It is an essential part of the main course. She has campaigned in the state nine times so far, and has 20 field offices with more than 150 people working out of them.
The most straightforward way to get 270 EVs for her is the three northern blue wall states (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) and NE-02 (Omaha), but she is really giving it her all in North Carolina. Maybe this will be like 2008, when Barack Obama won it, or maybe this will be like Arizona in 2016, when Hillary Clinton diverted resources from the blue wall to try to win a "possible" state, which may have caused her defeat. In terms of money, Harris can afford 20+ offices in North Carolina, but the critical resource, as always, is her time.
One thing that makes North Carolina special this year is the gubernatorial race. The Republicans are running a bats**t crazy all-around bigot, abortion hater, and porn lover, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R-NC). The Democrats are running a mild-mannered Jewish AG named Josh S., same as in Pennsylvania in 2022. That Josh S. won easily against an equally nutty all-out Trumpist. The gubernatorial race could bring marginal Democrats to the polls, just to vote against Robinson. Harris understands this and is tying herself closely to this Josh S.—Josh Stein—since he is better known in the state than she is.
Harris is advertising heavily in North Carolina and the ads are showing excerpts from her debate with Trump. She also plans to do media interviews with local media outlets. About 20% of the state is Black, not as much as Georgia. However, the rapidly growing Research Triangle area bounded by Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill has many transplants from out of state who work in the tech, finance, and the pharmaceutical industries, as well as at the three big research universities in those cities. The transplants typically bring their liberal political views with them and could be a big source of votes for Harris.
Look at the polling:
Until the end of July, it was no contest: Trump was crushing Biden in North Carolina. Then something happened in July and it suddenly got very close. What could it have been? We have our ideas about that but we'll let you figure it out. (V)