Dem
49
GOP
51
There is another election in town, but only about 50 or so people are allowed to vote in it. It is the race to become leader of the Senate Republican caucus, be it the majority caucus or minority caucus, depending mostly on what happens in the Montana Senate race. Although turtles live very long, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) may be nearing the end of the road and is vacating his position as minority leader as of Jan. 3, 2025. He probably won't run for reelection in 2026. So the race to replace him is on, both in the Senate and in Kentucky.
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) wants to replace him. Apparently nobody has had the nerve to tell Scott that if it weren't for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), he would be the most hated member of the Senate. And it definitely is a bipartisan thing. Republicans hate him as much as Democrats do. Scott is the richest member of the Senate, by far, with a net worth of $260 million. But money can't buy you love in the Senate (or a lot of other places). About a dozen Republican senators are worth over $10 million, but only two Democratic senators (Mark Warner, D-VA, and Michael Bennet, D-CO) are.
The real contenders are a pair of Jacks—no, make that a pair of Johns. Sens. John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX) both want the job badly. Both are well-known and well-liked by their colleagues. While buying votes in general elections is frowned upon, in the cozy world of Senate politics it is welcomed. So Thune just broke a record by giving $4 million from his campaign fund to the NRSC to help fellow Republican senators get reelected. He hopes they will be grateful when the time comes for the vote on caucus leader in December. The previous record for the biggest gift by a senator to the NRSC was $2 million—when Thune gave that amount to the NRSC in 2016. What a generous fellow! With $18 million in his war chest, he can afford it. Besides, in South Dakota, as long as you don't shoot your dog in the head, any Republican is guaranteed reelection.
Cornyn is not as generous as Thune because Texas is not as red as South Dakota and it is far more expensive to campaign there than in South Dakota. So what he is doing is promising to fight efforts to abolish the filibuster in the event that Democrats control the Senate in January. That will take some serious diplomacy and he'll have to figure out something to offer Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). That won't be easy.
But money and promises aside, the Senate caucuses are still pretty clubby and personality matters a lot. To win a leadership position, a candidate has to have many friends in his caucus. That's what really matters.
Interestingly enough, although Senate Republicans oppose ranked-choice voting in elections, they effectively use it themselves. Scott will probably get a few votes in round 1 of voting. If neither John has a majority, Scott will be eliminated and the Republican senators will then vote again. (V)