Dem
49
GOP
51
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) knows that if he can't get at least a temporary budget through Congress, the government will shut down in October and Republicans will get the blame. He doesn't want that. Yet he doesn't have the votes for even a stop-gap budget to keep the government financed until after the election. So he has postponed the budget vote again, to next week, hoping to twist enough arms to get it through.
The problem, as usual, is the Freedom Caucus, all of whose members come from districts so red that not only would they not be threatened by shutting the government down, it would actually help them. They won't be easy to win over, so it will require Johnson to deploy all the leadership skills he has. The problem is that they want to add things to the budget bill that are unacceptable to Republicans in swing districts and would never have a chance in the Senate anyway.
One specific thing the FCers want is to include in the budget something called the SAVE Act, which would require people to show proof of citizenship in order to register to vote. The people who don't have such proof are predominantly poor Democrats. Chuck Schumer knows this, so there is no way he will even bring up a bill containing the SAVE Act for a vote. But if the FCers won't vote for the bill unless that is in there, what is Johnson to do to prevent a shutdown, which will hurt many of his members?
He may have to depend on House Democrats for their votes. But that will require making a deal giving them some things they want. FC members will go nuts if he puts a couple of Democratic priorities in the bill. They might even threaten to fire him. Herding cats is no fun. Well, unless you are Nancy Pelosi, maybe. (V)