Sep.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 49

   

GOP 51

The Primaries Are Over

Last night, New Hampshire, Delaware and Rhode Island brought up the rear, marking an end to primary season. Here are the most interesting results:

• New Hampshire Governor: The biggest story of the night, given New Hampshire's purple-blue hue, was the gubernatorial race in the Granite State. On the Republican side, former senator Kelly Ayotte took the prize, with 63.3% of the vote in what was, effectively, a two-person race. Given her political skills, her statewide name recognition, and the backing of outgoing governor Chris Sununu (R-NH), she'll be tough to beat.
  
  That doesn't mean it is hopeless, however, for former Manchester, NH, mayor Joyce Craig. Ayotte isn't Trumpy, and may struggle to get those folks out to the polls to vote for her. That is doubly true if it becomes clear Kamala Harris is going to win the state in a walk, which is possible. And not only might a Harris victory keep some Republicans home, it might also mean that Democrats show up in large numbers.
  
  
• Delaware Governor: This one is much less interesting because Delaware, as a state, is D+7. And that may undersell things, because the current governor, John Carney (D), won his two elections by 19 and 20 points. Looking to replace him will be Matt Meyer (D), who has served in municipal government, and took 47% of the vote in a three-way race, and state Rep. Mike Ramone (R), who looks like he might indeed wanna be sedated.
  
  If Ramone were a heavy hitter, maybe he could make Meyer sweat. But the Delaware GOP doesn't have heavy hitters. The last time a Republican was elected governor was in 1984, the last time a Republican was elected to the Senate was in 2000, and the last time a Republican was elected to the House was in 2010. Two of those three people are still alive, in that Mike Castle is both the last Republican governor and last Republican representative to be elected in the Blue Hen State. But he's not running (and the last time he did run, for U.S. Senate, he lost). We therefore assume the headwinds will be too fierce for Ramone, and that Meyer will win.
  
  
• U.S. Senate, Rhode Island: Here's one that's even less in doubt than the Delaware governor's race. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) easily beat a challenger, with 83% of the vote. He will go on to defeat state Rep. Patricia Morgan (R-RI), who will, at least, get a nice line for her CV out of all of this. Whitehouse won his last two elections by 12 points, so we're going to put our considerable prognostication skills to work, and predict that he wins this one by... let's say 12 points.
  
  
• U.S. House, NH-01: Both of New Hampshire's CDs are competitive. That's 100%. We wonder if there are any other states where that's true? Maybe Alaska, but that at-large seat isn't actually supposed to be competitive. Rep. Mary Peltola (D) is making it so through sheer force of will.
  
  Anyhow, NH-01 is EVEN. Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) laid waste to his competition yesterday, taking 95.2% of the vote. He will face off against business owner Russell Prescott, who took a meager 26.3% of the vote, just barely outpacing nurse Hollie Noveletsky (23.7%) and Manchester alderman Joe Levasseur (22.9%). With one party unified behind an incumbent, and the other party running a candidate that clearly generated little enthusiasm, well, you don't need us to tell you what's going to happen in November.
  
  
• U.S. House, NH-02: NH-02, meanwhile, is D+2. In theory, that makes it slightly less competitive than NH-01. However, this year, it is an open seat because Rep. Annie Kuster (D-NH) is retiring. So, if the Republicans hope to steal a New Hampshire seat, this is the one they should focus on. The GOP banner will be carried by Lily Tang Williams, who has a compelling personal story (she fled the cultural revolution in China), but is an unknown. Oh, and her 35.6% of the vote also speaks to an enthusiasm problem. For the Democrats, it will be Maggie Goodlander, who took 63.7% of the vote in her contest. She is a lawyer, and may also be unknown, but her husband is Jake Sullivan, who serves as Joe Biden's NSA. So, you have to assume Biden will put his network to work for Goodlander.
  
  
• U.S. House, RI-02: There is also one competitive House race in Rhode Island, the D+4 RI-02. Rep. Seth Magaziner (D-RI) is not only incumbent, but was unopposed last night. He will face Steve Corvi, who is a veteran and a college lecturer. Republicans tend to admire one of those things, but not the other. But the bottom line is that it's yet another race in a district that's only sorta competitive, featuring an incumbent against an unknown. Elections like that are almost always won the by the former.

That's the last of those items for about 2 years. Full steam ahead to the general! (Z)