Sep.09

electoral-vote.com

Dem 49

   

GOP 51

It's Over. Finally.

Believe it or not, the final primaries are tomorrow. Why states hold their primaries in the middle of September is not clear. Maybe they were hoping to have short general-election campaigns. That's true, of course—but it comes at the price of interminable primary campaigns. Is it really a good idea to have 8 months of Democrats attacking Democrats and Republicans attacking Republicans and then 1½ months of the parties going after each other?

In any case, here is a brief rundown of the three primaries that will take place tomorrow:

• Delaware: There are no primaries for the Senate seat of retiring Sen. Tom Carper (D-DE). Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-DE) and former Walmart executive Eric Hansen (R) were the only people who filed for their respective parties. Rochester will crush Hansen in the general election and will become Delaware's first Black senator.
  
  The top competitive race is to replace the term-limited Gov. John Carney (D-DE). Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long (D-DE) is running, but is beset by charges that she has long violated state campaign laws. She is facing New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer and president of the National Wildlife Federation Collin O'Mara. We didn't know Delaware had any wildlife. Maybe rabbits, or something else with a very small range. There are also three Republicans running on that side of the aisle; the likely winner tomorrow, and loser in November, is Minority Leader of the Delaware House of Representatives Mike Ramone.
  
  With Rochester about to be elected to the Senate, her House position is open. State Sen. Sarah McBride (D) is very likely to be her party's nominee. The entire Democratic establishment is 100% behind her and she has plenty of money. If she wins, she will be the first trans person in Congress. Two unknown Republicans filed to run. Donyale Hall is a general contractor and John Whalen is a retired building contractor. Neither has a chance in the general election, so McBride is almost certain to be the next representative from Delaware.
  
  
• New Hampshire: The marquee race here is for governor, as Gov. Chris Sununu (R-NH) is retiring. On the GOP side, former senator Kelly Ayotte is running against former president of the state Senate Chuck Morse, whose argument is that he loves Donald Trump more than Ayotte does. As a reminder, Trump is currently polling around 7 points behind Kamala Harris in the Granite State.
  
  On the Democratic side, two more-or-less-interchangeable women are running. Joyce Craig is the former mayor of Manchester. Cinde Warmington is a member of the state's executive council, a five-person body with the authority to review some gubernatorial decisions. Since they don't differ much on policy, the race has gotten personal and nasty.
  
  Rep. Annie Kuster (D-NH) is a youthful (by congressional standards) 68, but is still retiring from her competitive D+2 seat, which covers the rural western two-thirds of the state, from Canada to Massachusetts. Colin Van Ostern, a former state executive councilor, and Maggie Goodlander, a former White House staffer, are battling for the Democratic nomination. They agree on most issues, so the race has grown negative as they attack each other. Van Ostern is calling Goodlander a Badlander because she hasn't lived in the state much. Goodlander is criticizing Van Ostern for working at a venture capital firm. Kuster supports Van Ostern. There is lots of outside money in the race.
  
  On the Republican side it is wild and woolly, with 13 candidates in the running. However, only a few have raised much money. Vikram Mansharamani had $300,000 as of Aug. 11, Lily Williams had $140,000, and oil trader Bill Hamlen had $130,000. The (remaining) Koch brother's network is supporting Mansharamani.
  
  In NH-01, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) will cruise to renomination. On the Republican side, there is business owner Russell Prescott, nurse Hollie Noveltsky, Manchester alderman Joe Levasseur, and others, but a St. Anselm College poll shows that the runaway favorite is Undecided, at 59%. The PVI is EVEN, but with a three-term congressman against an unknown, Pappas is favored.
  
  
• Rhode Island: Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) will easily be renominated and reelected in the Ocean State. The Republican primary features state Rep. Patricia Morgan and Army veteran Raymond McKay. It doesn't matter which one wins. He or she will be squashed like a bug.
  
  In RI-01, Rep. Gabe Amo (D-RI), who replaced David Cicilline in a special election, is running unopposed. He will face and crush Allen Waters in this D+12 district. In RI-02 there is no primary. Rep. Seth Magaziner (D-RI) will face veteran Steven Corvi (R). The district is D+4 and given that, plus the fact that Magaziner is an incumbent, he is strongly favored.
  

So, on Wednesday, the general election will have started in every state. Finally. (V)