Dem
49
GOP
51
The stakes couldn't be higher. The Siena College/New York Times national poll released Sunday has Donald Trump at 48% and Kamala Harris at 47%—almost an exact tie. Tomorrow's debate could well put one of them ahead for the duration. Both candidates know that, but they are preparing in different ways. Harris and Trump have never met, but they already hate each other, so there could be fireworks. If Harris wants to get under Trump's skin from the get go, she could refuse to shake his hand on stage and say to the moderators: "I never shake hands with rapists; as a prosecutor, I put them in prison." At that point, Trump's head might well explode.
The debate will be held in Philadelphia tomorrow at 9 p.m. ET. It is sponsored by ABC News and will be moderated by David Muir and Linsey Davis. Microphones will be controlled by the moderators and will be turned on only when a candidate has been invited to speak. Harris fought against this. She wanted to make it possible for Trump to interrupt her to get the optics of a big man picking on a small woman, but she lost this battle. There will not be a live audience. Nor will there be opening statements by the candidates. Candidates will not be allowed to bring in notes—tough luck for any candidate who happens to be literate. Trump won the coin flip last week, giving him the choice of going last or picking the podium of his choice. He chose to speak last so Harris got to pick which podium she wanted, and she chose the one that will appear on the right for the viewers (i.e., stage left, house right). This is the power position. Think: Where do all the late-night TV comedians sit? Almost always on the right.
Harris has spent five days locked down in the historic Omni William Penn Hotel in downtown Pittsburgh preparing for the debate before going to Philly. She is studying policy and working out 2-minute answers to expected questions. She is also reviewing past presidential debates, especially the 2016 debates between Trump and Hillary Clinton.
Harris' debate prep is being led by Karen Dunn, who has trained every Democratic presidential candidate since 2008. She also prepped Jeff Bezos for his testimony before Congress. Her superpower is speaking truth to power, but nicely, and getting power to recognize truth. She thinks of it as "tough love."
Dunn understands the nature of punching and counterpunching well. When prepping Hillary Clinton in 2016, Dunn suggested that Clinton bring up the incident in which Trump insulted a contestant in a beauty pageant by first calling her "Miss Piggy" (because she was curvy) and then calling her "Miss Housekeeping" (because she was a Latina). On stage, Clinton said: "Donald, she [the contestant] has a name. Her name is Alicia Machado and she has become a U.S. citizen and you can bet she's going to vote this November." That remark went viral.
When she is not prepping Democrats, Dunn does lawyering. Today, she will defend Google against antitrust charges. In the courtroom, she will be opposite AG Merrick Garland, who is on the other side. She knows Garland well. In fact, he officiated at her marriage in 2009. No hard feelings, though. Dunn has also represented Apple and Uber in court. On the other hand, she also represented the counterprotesters in their lawsuit against the organizers of the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville in 2017. She won a judgment of $25 million for them. Call us crazy, but she sounds like a possible candidate to replace Garland as AG if the Democrats hold the White House. However, she has never been a prosecutor, which is a minus, but nobody is perfect.
In addition to making sure she knows all the facts on policy, Harris fully understands that at least a third of the voters don't know who she is, so her primary goal is to introduce herself. A key here is looking and sounding presidential. She had some practice in the CNN interview with Dana Bash, but the debate will be much tougher because Trump will be there lying through his teeth at her. A secondary goal is to rattle Trump, to throw him off balance and make him say something that offends groups of voters. She will almost certainly say that he is an old rich guy who is interested only in helping himself and other old rich guys. She might also call him a "Russian puppet" (although the technical term is "useful idiot"). She gets bonus points if she can work E. Jean Carroll and Stormy Daniels into the conversation. If Trump tries to talk over her, the audience won't be able to hear that, but she could say on mic "Trump is talking over me right now. Have you ever had a man talk over you?" That could resonate with women.
Another theme Harris is sure to emphasize is that the race is "prosecutor vs. felon." When the subject of crime comes up, she is going to point out that he is a convicted felon and she spent years putting people like him in prison. She once quipped: "I know his type." She might say that again tomorrow.
Another thing she will harp on over and over is abortion. She will hold him personally responsible for Roe v. Wade being thrown out because he nominated three of the justices who did his dirty work. She will also hold the Republican Party responsible for trying to roll back women's reproductive freedom in other ways. Like a pitbull, she won't let go of this, no matter how evasive he tries to be. She knows that for women under 45, abortion is now their #1 issue. Trump is going to struggle to give a coherent response that doesn't offend his base and also doesn't offend suburban women. Actually, we could probably just simplify that last sentence to "Trump is going to struggle to give a coherent response." Then it applies to pretty much every question he'll get. Say, about, oh.... child care?
Harris is a big believer in mock debates, and is having them on a specially constructed set that mimics the actual debate set and with TV lighting and two moderators who come at her hard. In these mock debates, Trump will be played by long-time Clinton associate Phillippe Reines, who will wear an extra-long tie and boxy suit. He has played Trump in previous mock debates and knows how to hit below the belt, just as Trump will. The mock debates will be recorded so that Dunn and others can review and critique Harris' performance afterwards.
In preparation for the debate, Harris' campaign organized over 2,000 events around the country this past weekend. She hopes to get a million people to participate.
Meanwhile, Trump is mostly doing campaign rallies. He doesn't believe in studying briefing books or doing mock debates. He will sit down with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) though, and try to answer some questions Gaetz throws at him. Will Gaetz have the nerve to ask him really tough questions, like: A New York State judge said you raped E. Jean Carroll. What kind of role model does that make you for the nation's children?" We don't know, but we kind of doubt it. Answering questions like: "What are three ways that you were the best president in history?" isn't really going to prepare Trump well for the actual questions. In any event, Trump's answer to most questions is likely to be "Harris is a dangerous San Francisco liberal." He will talk to a few policy experts, though, including Tulsi Gabbard, whose primary expertise is on how to make Democrats' blood boil. In short, Trump is doing more debate prep than he wants to let on, but it is of an unconventional nature and not 90 minutes standing on a stage with a Harris stand-in answering likely questions.
Trump's other goal, besides painting Harris as a dangerous liberal, is tying her to the unpopular elements of the Biden administration, especially immigration and crime. He will call her the "border czar" and blame her for illegal immigration. However, that will be an invitation for her to point out that he personally killed the border bill written by the very conservative Sen. James Lankford (R-OK) along with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT). Then she will blame Trump for the border crisis. One area he probably won't touch is Gaza, because his Middle Eastern policy is basically "What Bibi wants, Bibi gets." That will be even less popular with the protesters than Biden's policy.
While his advisers are advising him to talk about the issues, what Trump really wants to do is talk about grievances. How he was robbed in the 2020 election and how rural straight white Christians are now oppressed victims in America. His base will eat it up, but his base is not big enough to win an election. But will he be able to resist the siren song of having a grievance festival, especially if Harris provokes him over and over, which she surely will?
His advisers' worst fear is that Trump can't control himself and will mansplain things to Harris, which will tick off women across the country. Even though he knows this, he probably can't stop himself. Fundamentally, in 2016, he knew Hillary Clinton was very smart and a hard worker. However, in 2024, he thinks Kamala Harris is dumb and lazy, even though she has won five elections on her own (and a sixth one as Joe Biden's veep). Why the discrepancy? Well, for one thing, Clinton is white. And for a second, and third, thing as well. In any event, Trump is easily rattled and Harris is going to do her darndest to push his buttons. It will not help his discipline that his nightmares right now are being haunted by Black women—Harris, Tanya Chutkan, Fani Willis, Tish James, etc.
To get Shakespearean, is the debate much ado about nothing—a tale told by two idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing? Historically, what are the greatest hits of debates? Serious discussions of nuclear policy or tax rates? Nah. There was Ronald Reagan saying "There you go again," to Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale asking Gary Hart "Where's the beef?", George H.W. Bush looking at his watch, Al Gore sighing, Mitt Romney announcing that he had "binders full of women," and Lloyd Bentsen telling Dan Quayle that he was no Jack Kennedy. In other words, if the debate is going to move the needle, the most likely way will be if it produces a really juicy viral moment. (V)