Dem
49
GOP
51
We had an item earlier this week on voter registrations. And while it's hard to get good, clear numbers (for various reasons, as we pointed out), it's nonetheless beyond doubt that registration is up among key Democratic constituencies, particularly young, minority women.
Yesterday, there was another data point in the form of a report from voter-registration organization Vote.org. They have just surpassed 1 million registrations for the current election cycle. This is good news, in and of itself. Greater engagement is good for democracy. And while Vote.org is nonpartisan, their numbers pretty strongly hint at good news for the Harris-Walz campaign, in particular. A staggering 79% of the new registrations were from voters under the age of 35. Almost 40% of the new registrations came in the month or so since Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Almost 20% of the new registrations came from swing states.
We should note that if the 2024 electorate looks substantially different from the 2020 electorate, that's another curve ball for pollsters, and one that they may not handle all that well. They can get at changes in turnout indirectly, primarily through "likely voter" screens, but it's tricky. So, it's another X-factor to consider when evaluating polling data. (Z)