Dem
49
GOP
51
Here's the storyline. All Democrats running as incumbents or for seats vacated by Democrats are likely to win—except maybe Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT). Tester's problem is that Montana is very red. In the presidential poll above, it is Harris -15 in the Big Sky State. Tester is -6. That means he is running 9 points better than Harris in a deep-red state, a nontrivial achievement. If we see this, the DSCC will, too. Expect the Democrats to get Bill Clinton and ideally Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) to campaign for Tester. If Tester loses to a guy from Minnesota whose aerial firefighting company lost $77 million last year, a President Harris will be largely hamstrung. One other thing the Democrats could do is go all out for Debbie Mucarel-Powell in Florida and Collin Allred in Texas to make up for a loss in Montana, but these two are longshots at best. (V)
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | Ruben Gallego | 50% | Kari Lake | 42% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |
| Maryland | Angela Alsobrooks | 46% | Larry Hogan | 41% | Aug 24 | Aug 30 | Gonzales Research |
| Michigan | Elissa Slotkin | 50% | Mike Rogers | 39% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |
| Montana | Jon Tester* | 45% | Tim Sheehy | 51% | Aug 25 | Aug 29 | Fabrizio + Binder |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen* | 51% | Sam Brown | 39% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 52% | David McCormick | 41% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin* | 49% | Eric Hovde | 41% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |