Dem
49
GOP
51
Take a good look at the map today. Harris is not winning in Arizona, North Carolina, or Georgia and still gets to 276. If she also loses Nevada, she has 270—assuming she wins both electoral votes in Maine and loses NE-02. That will be a real squeaker. Of course, if she wins NE-02, she can lose ME-02 and still be at 270. In other words, winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania plus one of the stray electoral votes is just (barely) enough. Naturally, winning the northern states and any one of the four southern states will make winning either NE-02 or ME-02 unnecessary.
YouGov seems to have a lean toward the Democrats. There is no reason to think this is intentional, though. Their model of the electorate just seems to be more blue than, say, Emerson College's. Hopefully by averaging the different pollsters, we can cancel out this sort of effect to some extent.
| State | Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | 45% | 47% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |
| Georgia | 45% | 47% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |
| Michigan | 48% | 43% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |
| Montana | 41% | 56% | Aug 24 | Aug 28 | Fabrizio + Binder |
| Nevada | 49% | 46% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |
| North Carolina | 46% | 47% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |
| Pennsylvania | 46% | 45% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |
| Wisconsin | 47% | 44% | Aug 23 | Sep 03 | YouGov |