Sep.03

electoral-vote.com

Dem 48

Ties 1

GOP 51

...And He Also Doesn't Speak English Very Well

Given that Donald Trump has returned to the campaign trail, and given that he cannot help but declare, over and over, that he is a "genius" with a "high IQ," a study from a few years back (2018) is making the rounds again. It's an analysis of the first 30,000 unscripted words uttered, as president, by the 15 holders of that office from Herbert Hoover to Donald Trump. Here are the numbers, from most erudite to least:

These numbers are calculated using the Flesch-Kincaid scale, which was developed in the 1970s by the Department of Defense, so as to make sure that training manuals were properly readable for recruits.

Let's start with some of the cautions that must be kept in mind. First, many politicians—especially the very skilled ones—engage in code-switching. Put more colloquially, they "dumb things down" when speaking to a broad audience, knowing that you need to be able to connect with everyone, not just the eggheads. It's not a coincidence that the two highest scores go to presidents who had lost nearly all connection with the voting public by the end of their terms in office.

There are also some biases that are clearly built in to the system. First, inasmuch as Flesch-Kincaid was calibrated to 1970s speech, it tends to produce lower scores for more recent presidents. Second, it seems pretty clear that there is some sort of bias against Southerners, as four of the bottom six acquired their language skills substantially in that region. Put another way, there is no way that George H.W. Bush (born in New England, but spent the formative years of his young adulthood in Texas) was actually less erudite than Ronald Reagan. (By the way, today's posting checks in at an 8.3, putting us right between St. Ronnie and JFK.)

With all that said, there is no way to spin it away, the numbers are very bad for Trump. He is well below second-to-last-place Harry S. Truman, the only 20th century president without a college diploma. And there is reason to believe that Trump's number, poor as it is, may actually be overselling him. First, the scale actually only goes down to "fifth grade," so he's got the lowest score possible. In fact, he technically has a lower score than is supposed to be the minimum possible. Second, this study is 6 years old, and Trump has clearly declined over that timeframe. A new analysis would not do him any favors.

So, is there any point to this, other than crapping on Donald Trump? Yes, we think so. First, it's a stone-cold reminder that he engages in projection, and that the more often he insists upon a thing, the less likely it is to be true (also see above). Everything about the man, from his words, to his policy ideas, to the evaluations of those who have worked closely with him, says he's just not very bright. The numbers back that up (this is also why he will never, ever take an actual IQ test, despite his obsession with IQ).

Second, it's no secret that Trump has rapidly converted non-college white voters into Republicans. It's fair to say that, at least in part, that is because he speaks their language—literally. Again, we acknowledge that some presidents "dumbed it down." Bill Clinton, for example, is most certainly not of "average" intelligence, even among presidents. But nobody can deliberately dumb it down as much as Trump has.

Third, this probably also helps explain, to some extent, why wannabe Trumpers struggle to connect with the base. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), J.D. Vance, etc. are more than happy to say whatever they think they need to say in order to advance their political prospects. But, in the end, they are all Ivy League-educated men with advanced degrees. Either they are too smart, or are not good enough actors to be able to speak like Trump does.

"Speak Like a Fourth Grader" is not likely to be a chapter in The Art of the Deal (revised edition) or any other book Trump produces (with help from a ghost writer, naturally). But it is part of the secret of his success, such as it is. (Z)