Dem
48
Ties
1
GOP
51
It is not so easy to track voter registration numbers. In part, that is because some states don't report the figures. In part, it is because even when they do report, they do it slowly. And in part, it is because some states report (again, often very slowly), but they don't register people by political party. In the latter circumstance, the numbers are somewhat instructive, but only somewhat.
The folks at TargetSmart decided to take a close look at 13 states that do report, and do break registrations down by party and demographics, and have issued an update for the month of July. The pollster/analyst decided to do a comparison of the week of July 21-28, 2020, versus July 21-28, 2024. They chose that timeframe, of course, because July 21, 2024, is the date Joe Biden withdrew from the race.
The thirteen states included in TargetSmart's study do a pretty good job of covering the gamut, from "swingy" to "not at all swingy," and from red to purple to blue. The states surveyed, from east to west, were Rhode Island, Vermont, Ohio, Kentucky, Michigan, Wisconsin, Louisiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming and Nevada. Registration was up among all demographic groups considered in the study; here are the changes for each group, again comparing one week in July 2020 to one (very significant) week in July 2024:
| Group | Increase |
| Republicans | 7.8% |
| Men | 17.1% |
| Asian Americans/Pacific Islanders | 31.7% |
| Women | 37.6% |
| Democrats | 51.2% |
| Latinos/Latinas | 63.2% |
| Voters 18-29 | 73.4% |
| Latinas | 78.3% |
| Women 18-29 | 83.7% |
| Black People | 85.8% |
| Black Women | 98.4% |
| Latinas 18-29 | 149.7% |
| Black Women 18-29 | 175.8% |
The tale the data tells couldn't be plainer. The switch from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris inspired a lot of young people, particularly young people of color, to get themselves registered. This trend presumably continued into August, for which numbers are not available as yet.
Note that we are not "all-in" on this data, for a couple of reasons. The first is that, in the end, it's just one week's worth of registrations, and our guess that the trends continued is just that, a guess. Second, TargetSmart is a Democratic-leaning pollster/analyst, and we are always nervous when information comes from a source that wears its politics on its sleeve.
That said, there is clearly something important going on with voter registration since Kamala Harris became the Democrats' presidential candidate. In just the last 2 weeks, we've seen stories about the noticeable increase in registrations in Virginia, Georgia, New Jersey, Arkansas, Massachusetts and Maine. Most of those stories specifically note that the most substantial increase is among Black women voters. So, TargetSmart probably isn't making it up.
The good news for the Democrats is that, as you might expect, newly registered voters are much more likely to vote than voters who have been registered for a long time. So, these folks who have signed up to vote since Harris' ascendancy are significantly more likely than not to become Harris-Walz voters. The big question is exactly how extensive the uptick in registrations is, and will be. Given the slow reporting of the figures, the full picture won't be known until after the election. However, for what it is worth, Tom Bonier, who oversaw the new study for TargetSmart, says the surge in registrations is even bigger than after the Dobbs decision (issued on June 24, 2022). And everyone knows how that worked out for the Democrats in the midterms. (Z)