Dem
48
Ties
1
GOP
51
Races for seats in state legislatures rarely get much attention, but some of them are really important. If Democrats in Arizona can flip two seats in the state Senate and two in the state House, for example, they will have the trifecta.
And sometimes a single seat matters even when one party has a huge majority. In North Carolina, it takes a three-fifths majority to override the governor's veto. Due to extensive gerrymandering, Republicans now have exactly a three-fifths majority in both the state Senate (30-20) and state House (72-48) and have been using it to run rampant over Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC). If the Democrats can pick up a single seat in either the 50-seat Senate or the 120-seat House, they can block the legislature from steamrolling North Carolina AG Josh Stein (D) if he is elected governor, as seems likely. Just one seat in either chamber changes everything.
Similar scenarios are playing out in other states as well. In Nevada, Gov. Joe Lombardo (R-NV) vetoed a record 75 bills in 2023. Democrats overrode him in the House on all of them, but are one vote short of a supermajority in the Senate. If they can pick up one seat in the Senate, they will go to town and run the state without his input.
In Kansas, Gov. Laura Kelly (D) has vetoed bills on abortion, criminal justice, and other issues, only to see the legislature override all her vetoes. If Democrats can pick up two seats in the state House or three in the state Senate, then her vetoes will stick.
In Pennsylvania, the Democrats have a two-seat majority in the state House, so they can barely pass bills, but Republicans control the Senate, so deadlock reigns. If the Republicans can pick up two seats in the House, they can flood the governor's desk with bills, but he will veto them all and they can't do anything about it.
In short, there are a number of state legislatures where flipping one or two seats really means a lot, but most of this is flying under the radar for most voters. (V)