Dem
48
Ties
1
GOP
51
Florida has a ballot measure, Amendment 4, in November that would guarantee the right to an abortion. For weeks, reporters have been asking Donald Trump how he will vote on it. He has been evasive on this. Last Thursday, he gave a hint that he would vote for the measure. This made the anti-abortion activists beyond angry and they started to threaten to withhold their votes for him and vote against Kamala Harris instead. (That's the same thing as voting for Trump, but it sounds meaner). The pressure on him quickly ramped up to the point where he couldn't take it anymore. On Friday, he caved and said he would vote no on 4.
This solves one problem but creates a new one. The anti-abortion activists are now happy, but a large majority of Americans are pro-choice and now Kamala Harris is going to bash him over the head with "Trump wants abortions banned after 6 weeks," which is what the law is now in Florida. She is also going to claim that if the Republicans capture Congress, they will pass a bill banning all abortions nationwide and Trump will sign it.
When Harris starts running ads saying Trump will ban abortion nationwide, he is going to have to respond. If he responds by saying he won't sign any such bill, the anti-abortion activists will jump on his back again. He would love for the issue to go away, but Harris is not going to let that happen. It is going to be a centerpiece of her campaign and he is going to have to deal with it. He has the bad luck that his base is divided on the issue whereas hers is virtually 100% pro-choice. There is not much he can do about it.
And the problem is getting worse. The anti-choice folks largely want no abortions at all, starting at fertilization. But most Americans want it legal and available at least until the point of viability and in some cases beyond—for example, to preserve the physical or mental health of the mother. For more and more people, especially women, abortion is moving up the list to become one of the top issues. Some recent polling is showing that for women under 45, abortion is now the top issue. With Harris talking about abortion constantly, voters are not likely to forget it.
What is ironic is how the tables have turned. It used to be that abortion was a great motivator for Republicans. They got what they wanted: Roe v. Wade was overturned. Now abortion is a great motivator for Democrats. (V)