Dem
48
Ties
1
GOP
51
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has been leading by large margins all year. She's safe. What we don't understand is why the presidential race is close. Can there really be that many Trump/Rosen voters? If a voter loves Trump, he or she will surely swoon over Brown who is even trumpier than Trump. We are seeing this effect all over the country: the presidential race is close but the Democrat is running away with the Senate race. Something is wrong with this picture, but we don't know what it is. With the country so polarized, we find it odd that the Senate and and presidential races are so different in so many states. Look at the Senate graphs to see why we are scratching our heads. In Arizona, Michigan, Neavda, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the Democrat has had a substantial and consistent lead all year, yet Harris is not killing it in those states. What's going on here? (V)
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen* | 50% | Sam Brown | 38% | Aug 07 | Aug 14 | Strategies 360 |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 48% | David McCormick | 46% | Aug 27 | Aug 29 | Wick |