Dem
48
Ties
1
GOP
51
Starting today we are tracking the Senate as well as the presidency. We now know the Senate candidates in all states except Massachusetts and Rhode Island and it doesn't matter who the Republicans nominate in those places. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) will win in landslides no matter who the Republicans are.
To see the Senate map and detailed information about all 34 Senate races, use the Click for Senate link in the blue bar above the map or bookmark www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Senate/senate_races.html.
There have been 145 Senate polls from reliable pollsters so far this year and they have all been entered into the database. You can download all the data in various formats using the button above the map legend. It's going to be a squeaker.
As you can see above, there is one tie at the moment. When you look at the Senate map, it may not be obvious at first where it is. It's Maryland. The most recent poll has Angela Alsobrooks (D) and Larry Hogan (R) tied at 46% apiece. The Republican pickups are Montana and West Virginia.
Assuming Alsobrooks ultimately wins in deep-blue Maryland, the Democrats will have 49 seats in the Senate. When Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) loses or retires, the Democrats will lose a seat, but they will get one back when Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) loses or retires. That puts the Democrats at 49. In the long run, the Democrats can probably take back the seat of Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI), putting them at their ceiling of 50, and that is assuming they can hang onto their four seats in Arizona and Georgia, which is not a given. There are two ways for the Democrats to get a permanent majority. First, turn North Carolina blue, like Virginia. Second, get the trifecta, abolish the filibuster, and make D.C. and Puerto Rico states.
We have added two new links to the menu to the left of the map: tipping-point state for Senate and Graphs of Senate polls. To get an overview of how the Senate races are developing, you might want to check them out. They can bring you up to speed on the Senate quickly. (V)