Dem
49
GOP
51
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is not running for a new term as minority leader, even though he will remain in the Senate at least until Jan. 2027 (but probably not beyond that). The race to replace him is well underway. Three Republican senators have announced: John Cornyn (TX), John Thune (SD), and Rick Scott (FL). Scott runs a close second to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) for the honor of being the most hated member of the Senate—by both parties. So it is virtually certain that one of the Johns will win.
So are they hanging around the Capitol campaigning? Not at all. Both of them are crisscrossing the country looking for votes from other Senate Republicans and wannabe Senate Republicans. Thune has been to Indiana, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania recently. He has also been to a fundraiser for Kari Lake, albeit in New York City. The idea is that if he is out there campaigning for a Republican senator or wannabe senator in a tough race, and that person wins, one way to express gratitude for the help would be to vote for Thune in December when the Republican conference elects its leader. Cornyn is doing the same thing, largely in the same places, though, since nobody thinks Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) or Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) needs any help. Of course, with both candidates stumping in the same Senate races, the effect kind of cancels out, but what's a guy to do?
Still, the Senate is a clubby kind of place, at least within each conference, and votes for leader generally go to the most collegial candidate, not the one whose policies are most agreeable, since there is virtually no difference between the candidates. It's all about friendship and being connected to the candidate and in politics, there is no better way to bond with a senator or would-be senator than to be out there on the hustings with them.
There are a couple of other things that could matter, though. Cornyn is from a very big and very rich state. He knows all the movers and shakers in Houston (Pop. 2.3M), San Antonio (Pop. 1.6M), Dallas (Pop. 1.3M), Austin (Pop. 1.0M), and everywhere else in Texas. He could raise a lot of money from his friends down there. In contrast, Thune is from South Dakota. He knows all the residents of Sioux Falls (Pop. 211K), Rapid City (Pop. 81K), Aberdeen (Pop. 28K), and Brookings (Pop. 25K). He might not be able to shake the money tree as effectively as Cornyn. On the other hand, although Thune is 63, he looks much younger and is very energetic. Cornyn is 72 but looks a generation older than Thune. All Republican senators are painfully aware of the times McConnell froze midsentence and had to be helped from the stage. They don't want a repeat performance, which might favor the younger guy, Thune. And again, the key factor is which one you like more personally.
Finally, if Trump wins the White House and demands that all senators vote for Scott, there is a small chance that he could win. On the other hand, Senate leadership elections are by secret ballot, so every senator could swear they voted for Scott and act befuddled when Scott got only six votes. (V)