Dem
49
GOP
51
The New York Times published an op-ed on the polls yesterday jointly authored by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Republican pollster Amanda Iovino. Their main observation is expressed in this one bar graph:
As you can see, the gap between noncollege men and college-educated women is 43 points. It is like they are living on different planets. Possibly Venus and Mars. They experience completely different economies and have completely different top issues. College-educated women tend to be financially secure and don't have to worry where their next meal is coming from. They are free to prioritize abortion as a top issue. Working-class men are much more concerned about the economy and how it has changed over the past few decades, especially society's use for men who don't even have a high school diploma. They also have many grievances about how things are now, including the role of college-educated women.
What is also interesting is that education trumps sex. Suppose you are a noncollege woman. The "woman" part of you says "vote for Harris," but the noncollege part of you says "vote for Trump." Noncollege women are Trump +4, so the education part is apparently dominant. Now the other way, college men. The college part of them says "Harris" but the "man" part says "Trump." College men are Harris +7, so again education is more important than sex. In other words, it looks like education is the most important determinant of how people will vote. In reality, there is more, though. Race and age are also important, otherwise Trump would win in a landslide. All racial and ethnic minorities skew Democratic and so do young voters. That we have achieved an exact balance and kept it like that for 8 years is amazing, but apparently true.
The two groups consume media in completely different ways. Men spend a lot of time on eX-Twitter and Reddit and listen to YouTube personalities who concentrate on gaming, sports, and politics. Women tend towards TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook, especially content about personal growth, style, and crime. It is not surprising that they have different voting patterns, especially with one of the major candidates now a woman. The result is the biggest gap between men and women, especially between noncollege men and college-educated women, in history. This isn't the first election with such a gap, just the one with the biggest gap.
While Joe Biden got 5% more votes from noncollege men than did Hillary Clinton in 2016, current support for Kamala Harris is back to Clinton levels. Much of that is due to noncollege men's attitudes toward women in executive positions. They worry whether the women are strong enough, are respected by foreign leaders, and are able to boost (and interested in boosting) manufacturing. Years ago, any Democrat could count on support from male-dominated unions. That is not the case anymore. For example, the UAW endorsed Harris, but the Teamsters did not. Unions that are heavily female, like the AFT (teachers) and SEIU (service workers), are strongly pro-Harris.
The two pollsters note that there aren't a lot of issues in which noncollege men and college-educated women are on the same page, but there are a few. Both groups are anti-corporation, against air and water pollution, and pro-public education and giving people job skills. Both want to preserve nature, albeit for different reasons (the men for hunting, the women for dealing with climate change). Candidates who get this can attract both groups, but it requires some carefully prepared ads. (V)