Dem
49
GOP
51
If any pollsters are reading this, we have a small request: Forget all the Senate races except Florida, Montana, Nebraska, and Texas. Those are the races that are very likely going to determine control of the Senate. With all due respect, the Nebraska special election is not where the action is. But as long as you are calling folks in Nebraska, why not ask about the race that seems to be the important one? We had thought Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) was safe, but maybe with Pennsylvania so close and so partisan, even a hedge fund CEO who lives in Connecticut (Dave McCormick) could win if Trump carries the state. It now appears that if Trump wins big, he might get a majority of as much as 3-4 seats in the Senate, more than it appeared a month ago. If Harris wins, Democrats will probably get at least 48 or 49 seats in the Senate, maybe even 50 or possibly 51 (unlikely though). (V)
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | Ruben Gallego | 49% | Kari Lake | 34% | Oct 25 | Oct 27 | RABA Research |
| Massachusetts | Elizabeth Warren* | 56% | John Deaton | 36% | Oct 24 | Oct 26 | Emerson Coll. |
| Michigan | Elissa Slotkin | 47% | Mike Rogers | 45% | Oct 24 | Oct 27 | Suffolk U. |
| Michigan | Elissa Slotkin | 48% | Mike Rogers | 42% | Oct 23 | Oct 28 | SSRS for CNN |
| Michigan | Elissa Slotkin | 51% | Mike Rogers | 47% | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Beacon + Shaw for Fox |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar* | 52% | Royce White | 35% | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | SurveyUSA |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar* | 52% | Royce White | 40% | Oct 16 | Oct 22 | Embold Research |
| Nebraska | Dan Osborn (I) | 43% | Deb Fischer* | 50% | Oct 21 | Oct 28 | YouGov |
| New Jersey | Andy Kim | 49% | Curtis Bashaw | 26% | Oct 15 | Oct 22 | Rutgers-Eagleton |
| New Jersey | Andy Kim | 57% | Curtis Bashaw | 39% | Oct 20 | Oct 27 | Fairleigh Dickinson U. |
| Nebraska-special | Preston Love | 36% | Pete Ricketts* | 54% | Oct 21 | Oct 28 | YouGov |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 45% | David McCormick | 44% | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Monmouth U. |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 48% | David McCormick | 42% | Oct 22 | Oct 28 | YouGov |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 48% | David McCormick | 45% | Oct 23 | Oct 28 | SSRS for CNN |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 50% | David McCormick | 47% | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Quinnipiac U. |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 50% | David McCormick | 48% | Oct 24 | Oct 28 | Beacon + Shaw for Fox |
| Utah | Carolyn Gleich | 26% | John Curtis | 54% | Oct 25 | Oct 28 | Noble Predictive Insights |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin* | 49% | Eric Hovde | 47% | Oct 23 | Oct 28 | SSRS for CNN |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin* | 51% | Eric Hovde | 49% | Oct 16 | Oct 24 | Marquette Law School |