Oct.29

electoral-vote.com

Dem 49

   

GOP 51

You Can Vote Dem or You Can Vote Dem... agogue

Allow us to begin today by reminding readers of one of the most famous "October Surprise" stories in American history. On October 29, 1884, Reverend Samuel D. Burchard gave a speech in New York City on behalf of then-GOP nominee James G. Blaine. And, in an attempt to fire up Republican voters prior to the election, the good reverend thundered: "We are Republicans, and don't propose to leave our party and identify ourselves with the party whose antecedents have been Rum, Romanism, and Rebellion." That was not the wisest thing to say in a city full of Irish Catholics, who all heard the news within 24 hours, thanks to New York City's thriving newspaper trade (there were five successful dailies at that time). Blaine lost New York State by just 1,149 votes, and the election 219 electoral votes to 182. If you flip the Empire State's 36 EVs, then Blaine wins election, 218-183.

The potential relevance of this story is probably evident to most readers without us telling you. But for those who haven't heard, Donald Trump held a rally Sunday evening at Madison Square Garden (which, last we checked, is in New York City). And among the speakers at that rally was a "comedian" (and we use the term VERY loosely) named Tony Hinchcliffe. Hinchcliffe made his reputation, such as it is, as a "roast" comic. In other words, he insults people, the way Don Rickles used to, or the way Jeff Ross does now.

You can presumably see where this is going (if you don't already know). In view of his personal comic style, and of the crowd he was performing for, Hinchcliffe decided to set his sights on... minority groups. Here's a rundown of the trio of "jokes" that have suddenly made the comedian a household name:

• "There's a lot going on. I don't know if you guys know this, but there's literally a floating island of garbage in the middle of the ocean right now. I think it's called Puerto Rico."
  
  
• "These Latinos, they love making babies, too. Just know that they do. There's no pulling out. They don't do that. They come inside, just like they did to our country."
  
  
• [Pointing at a Black audience member]: "That's cool, Black guy with a thing on his head. What the hell is that, a lamp shade? Look at this guy! Oh, my goodness. Wow! I'm just kidding, that's one of my buddies. He had a Halloween party last night. We had fun, we carved watermelons together. It was awesome!"

We have a pretty high tolerance for edgy humor, but the humor does have to be, you know, funny. There's nothing here that's even mildly amusing (the crowd at the rally agreed; you could have heard a pin drop after Hinchcliffe's set).

Recognizing that Hinchcliffe's performance might not play too well with the voting public, a campaign spokesperson immediately put out a statement declaring: "This joke [the one about Puerto Rico] does not reflect the views of President Trump or the campaign." This statement is what is known, in technical terms, as a baldfaced lie. Here is why:

• Hinchcliffe's reputation is well-established. Not only is he a roast/insult comic, but his primary vehicle is a YouTube show in which he demeans and belittles other comics, focusing in particular on their race, gender, disabilities, etc. If you invite someone like that to be part of your rally, you do so with eyes wide open.
  
  
• Initially, the campaign claimed they had not pre-vetted his remarks, and so had no idea what Hinchcliffe planned to say. As it turns out, the campaign not only vetted the speech, but actually reduced the damage that would otherwise have been done, ordering the comedian to remove a "joke" where he described Kamala Harris as a "c**t."
  
  
• The other speakers on stage may not have insulted Puerto Ricans, but they were also full of various forms of angry, hateful, demagogic rhetoric. Rudy Giuliani was there, and argued that Palestinians are born to be terrorists and that they are taught to "kill us at 2 years old." David Rem, who is running for mayor in New York City, said Harris is "the devil" and "the antichrist." Tucker Carlson remarked that Harris would be "the first Samoan Malaysian low IQ, former California prosecutor ever to be elected president." Radio talker Sid Rosenberg slurred Democrats as "a bunch of degenerates. Lowlifes. Jew-haters and lowlifes. Every one of 'em." Stephen Miller decreed "America is for Americans and Americans only." And Trump himself went on yet another "enemy from within" rant. In other words, Hinchcliffe fit right in.
  
  
• While there was SOME effort to distance the campaign from Hinchcliffe's remarks, the overwhelming response, particularly from prominent people, was, "there's no problem here." Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said "the crowd didn't mind." J.D. Vance told a crowd that he isn't sure the jokes were actually racist. The right-wing propagandists were especially assertive; Jesse Watters described the night's speakers as "The Avengers," Greg Gutfeld joked that Hinchcliffe's performance was educational because it brought attention to Puerto Rico's "trash problem," and Matt Walsh, who might be the least funny person on Earth, explained that these "are the kinds of jokes that normal people tell."

Ultimately, it could not be more clear that the Trump campaign has decided that its best chance is to really lean into the bigotry, and to try to convince as many people as possible that if he is returned to the White House, the former president will offer protection from those scary [fill in bugaboo here]. It's not just this rally that lays bare his strategy, it's ALL of his rallies. It's also his commercials; the one that is airing in heaviest rotation right now (to the exclusion of all others) focuses on how Kamala Harris wants trans prisoners to be allowed to have operations, and trans women to be allowed to play women's sports. Even if you take Trump's side on these questions, is this really among the top 100 most important issues facing the nation right now? And is this really all Trump has to offer?

Trump and Vance also continue to double down on scapegoating immigrants in Springfield. The latest, for those who have not heard, is a Haitian immigrant, who was in the country legally, but who did not have a license to drive in the U.S., and whose car hit a school bus, killing a local child named Aiden Clark. Team Trump, particularly Trump and Vance themselves, decided to weaponize that, and started talking about how Clark was "murdered" as part of a "border blood bath" in an American community that has been "invaded" by "migrant criminals from the dungeons of the Third World."

Aiden's parents, Nathan and Danielle Clark, did not particularly want their son's death to be front-page news every day. And they really, really did not want his death to be weaponized against immigrants, noting that the 11-year-old's predominant character trait was compassion. So, the Clarks pleaded with everyone to knock it off. And what has been their reward for this? They have been doxxed, and have been slurred as "immigrant-loving race traitors," and have received death threats. They now have a sheriff's deputy stationed outside their home 24/7, while the sheriff has told them that if they really want to be sure of their safety, they should consider leaving Springfield, at least until after the election's over.

So yes, the Trump campaign, in truly vile fashion, is running the demagogue's playbook. It is incontrovertible, and anyone who claims otherwise is just gaslighting. Indeed, as compared to what Trump and Vance are saying about Haitians, the Puerto Rico "joke" is actually on the tame side. It is improbable that any Puerto Ricans will get death threats because some hacky comic said their place of origin is trashy.

That said, the things that catch fire in politics are not usually those that are the scariest or most violent or most venal. And so it is that Hinchcliffe's slur against Puerto Ricans has gone viral, and appears to have roused the community to action. Perhaps most notably, the musician Bad Bunny, who might be the most beloved Puerto Rican in the country, stepped off the sidelines yesterday and endorsed Kamala Harris, telling his 45 million Instagram followers that "there's so much at stake in this election for Puerto Rican voters and for Puerto Rico."

In contrast to Samuel Burchard 130 years ago, Hinchcliffe is not going to change the presidential outcome in New York, which is as safe as it gets for Kamala Harris. However, there are 1,153,880 Puerto Ricans in Florida, per the last census, making up 5.3% of the population. Perhaps more significantly, there are 456,589 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania, making up 3.6% of the population. Could the racist "jokes," coming just a week before the election, cause 10,000 or 20,000 Puerto Ricans in the Keystone State, who might otherwise have sat this one out, to get to the polls to register their unhappiness? That is well within the realm of possibility. We could very well look back in a few weeks or a month and decide that this was the October Surprise that swayed the election, just like the one from 1884. (Z)