Oct.28

electoral-vote.com

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GOP 50

When Will We Know?

Don't count on knowing who will be president an hour after the polls close on the West Coast. Or even a day after. That notwithstanding, do expect Donald Trump to claim victory on Election Night, possibly soon after the polls close in the Eastern Time Zone. How long did it take the AP to call the winner in each state in 2020? Axios has produced this graphic to show it.

As soon as Trump declares victory, he is also likely to demand that the counting of votes stop, even in states where ballots postmarked on or before Election Day must be counted even if they arrive after Election Day (up to some limit). His supporters may back him up, but of course, local election authorities will follow state law, not Trump's wishes. There could be a period of confusion and uncertainty all night and possibly the next day, especially if not all counting has been completed on Election Night. Many states do not want election workers to work through the night because they are in stressful jobs and are entitled to get some sleep. So counting often stops around midnight and starts again around 8 a.m. the next day, possibly with no result when they stop.

This pause will cue the rumor mill to start generating falsehoods and conspiracy theories at full blast. A CBS study showed that 55% of Elon Musk's 48,000 tweets about election security since 2020 contain false or misleading information. He won't be the only one. If Trump believes he is losing, he will flood the zone with lies.

In close races, it can take a very long time to get a final count. It took the AP 3½ days to make a call in Pennsylvania in 2020. North Carolina (10 days) and Georgia (16 days) were the worst and were only called after hand recounts of all the ballots had been completed. Fortunately, Biden didn't need those electoral votes to win, but suppose he did. It would have taken over two weeks to know who won, with all the uncertainty and screaming that would have entailed. Shades of Florida in 2000. With seven swing states this time, we might have to wait a bit. And it is possible that the Supreme Court gets involved, as it did in 2000. We are not lawyers, but we do know that presidential elections are run according to state law, so the final call should generally rest with the relevant state Supreme Court, unless some state clearly violated federal law, which is unlikely. But the Supreme Court might not see it that way. Chief Justice John Roberts was allegedly very surprised by the public reaction to the Dobbs decision. If he and his buddies overrule some state Supreme Court and declare Trump the winner, the reaction to Dobbs will be small potatoes.

Each state has its own procedures for counting votes. Here are the procedures used by the seven swing states:

• Arizona: Many people in Arizona drop off their absentee ballots on Election Day. This means the signature verification can't realistically start until after the polls close, since the election workers are busy helping in-person voters until then. Then the ballots have to be removed from the envelopes and put in the tabulating machines. Fox News called Arizona on Election Night in 2020, but the other networks took 9 days to call it.
  
  
• Georgia: In 2020, Biden's victory in the Peach State wasn't known until days later. The legislature has changed some laws, including one requiring counties to continuously count until 5 p.m. the day after the election. If workers have to stay on the job until then, they will be dead tired and probably make mistakes. It could be a real mess.
  
  
• Michigan: In 2020, the call came at 6 p.m. the day after the election. This year, absentee ballots can be processed before Election Day. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson expects to be able to certify the results the day after the election this year, the same as last time.
  
  
• Nevada: Elections in the Silver State are run by mail and state law allows ballots postmarked on or before Election Day to be counted up to 4 days later. If it is close, the results won't be known until Nov. 9 or later. Fortunately, there are not many scenarios in which Nevada's six electoral votes determine the winner.
  
  
• North Carolina: Despite the lack of any hurricanes in 2020, the winner wasn't declared until 4 p.m. on the Friday after the election. This year, the damage caused by Hurricane Helene has to be factored in. If phone lines are still down and roads impassable in some counties, that could slow the reporting process.
  
  
• Pennsylvania: This is the biggest swing state and possibly the closest and slowest. Tabulation of absentee ballots may not even begin until the polls close. In the midterms, a quarter of the votes were absentee ballots. Will that happen again? It could. The election wasn't called in Pennsylvania in 2020 until the Saturday after Election Day.
  
  
• Wisconsin: The two biggest counties, Milwaukee and Dane, are usually pretty slow about counting and statewide results can't possibly be known until both of them are in.
  

So expect prolonged uncertainty, rumors, lies, conspiracy theories, disputes, court challenges over everything, and probably hand recounts in multiple states. Markets will be in turmoil. Election workers will be worked to the bone and harassed. We wouldn't be surprised if some of them simply gave up midcount and quit their jobs, creating even more chaos. And when all the results are in, the court challenges will be revved up. We hope John Roberts and his eight friends have cleared their docket for November and December. They're going to have to work overtime then. (V)