Dem
50
GOP
50
The second graph on our Electoral College page looks like this:
The message here is that neither candidate is anywhere near 270 electoral votes when only states where the polling is outside the margin of error (assumed to be 5% here) are counted. Leads of 1% or 2% mean nothing, especially in light of the above item.
Democrats are wetting their pants, as they are wont to do, but the polls say it is simply a coin flip or a jump ball or whatever other metaphor you like for a tie. Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson said: "Democrats always see the glass as half-empty rather than half-full. I think the reality is this election is so tight, it's exactly where we thought it would be 3 months ago, that it was going to come down to a jump ball election, that there were a handful of states that were going to really be on the razor's edge."
Democrats, especially the college-educated ones, tend to be rational and look at the facts and the candidates' demeanors and policies. Then they conclude that theirs is obviously the best one, so why isn't she 20 points ahead? They have trouble understanding that some other people see things completely differently (e.g., young men idolizing Donald Trump's fake alpha male image because he can "grab 'em by the pu**y" and get away with it). Or Trump as an anti-hero who is sticking it to the elites (that won't accept him as one of theirs). And the Democrats don't fully realize that some things they consider obvious are an abomination to many other people (hence Trump building his closing argument around gender reassignment surgery for prisoners). Democrats also don't see the worldwide trend of incumbent parties losing postpandemic and some countries moving to the right, neither of which has anything to do with the personal qualities of Trump or Harris.
It is true that Harris has dropped from her high after the Democratic National Convention. That always happens. After a week of nothing but positive news, it is hard to maintain that momentum, although Harris' fundraising has gone through the roof and stayed there.
Part of the problem for Democrats is that many of them remember 2016, when polls in October had Hillary Clinton way ahead and she lost anyway. Of course, James Comey isn't FBI director anymore, and Harris doesn't have a private e-mail server. Also, Trump is far more unhinged now than he was in 2016, but his support is so solid now that it doesn't matter.
Republican strategists like the fact that Trump has edged up in the past 2-3 weeks, but are also very nervous. One national GOP strategist said: "Could it be a wave? Sure, absolutely. However, these polls are still close, I'm hoping Republicans don't get so excited that they forget to go and vote. That's kind of what you see right now is that Republicans have this almost out-of-body experience of how we're going to win all these states, and it's not going to be close." So overconfidence could be even worse than underconfidence if Democrats think it will be close and Republicans are already ordering the champagne.
In the end, it might come down to 50,000 votes in seven states and the weather in 10 big cities in those states. (V)