Dem
50
GOP
50
We don't mean the 10 presidential electors. You already knew that. And we don't mean the Senate race. You knew that, too. We mean the massively gerrymandered state Assembly, where the Republicans have 64 seats and the Democrats have 35 seats—in the mother of all 50-50 states. This time could be different because the state Supreme Court, where the Democrats now have a majority, threw out the old legislative maps and drew new ones that are quite competitive. Since all 99 seats are up next week, the Democrats actually have a shot at getting a majority in the Assembly. The Republicans have a 22-10 supermajority in the state Senate (with one vacancy), but only half the Senate is up this year, so the effect of the new map won't be fully felt until 2026.
As in Pennsylvania (see above), a lot is riding on winning rural areas. Democrats are seriously contesting 97 of the 99 Assembly districts, something of a record, since almost none are completely hopeless now. Nevertheless, they will have to totally revamp their normal Wisconsin strategy to capture the Assembly. Usually they just show up in Milwaukee and Dane (Madison) counties and try to get everyone to the polls. That obviously does not work in the other 70 counties, some of them quite rural.
One of most contested districts now is centered around Wausau, a city of 40,000 in Marathon County, in the middle of the state, 140 miles north of Madison and 150 miles northwest of Milwaukee. There, and elsewhere in small towns in rural areas, the Republicans have a well-oiled machine at work. They can easily find candidates who are a good match for the district and who are well-known in the community, either as a member of a town council, a school board, or a business leader. Democrats are poorly organized in areas they never won before and are having trouble recruiting candidates in many districts. County parties have become moribund since they always lose. A new map doesn't suddenly revitalize the party committees.
Another district that has suddenly become winnable is AD 51, in the southwestern part of the state along the Iowa border. The new map added more of Dane County to it, so it is now a 50-50 district. The Democrats found a candidate in realtor Elizabeth Grabe, who is now crisscrossing the 50-mile district in an effort similar to the triathlons she used to compete in. Wisconsin has a population of 5.9 million and 99 assembly districts, so a district has to have about 60,000 people. To collect 60,000 people in rural areas, the district has to be quite large. National candidates have large staffs of advisers who organize rallies, do fundraising, and plot the air war. For a state assembly district, it is just the candidate going door to door, a campaign manager and maybe a few volunteers. The current assemblyman, Todd Novak (R), is better known than Grabe and probably has more money for signs and a proper headquarters. Nevertheless, with a 50-50 district and many voters simply looking for who has the (D) and who has the (R), she has a chance. The same holds in all 99 districts and also those state Senate districts up this year. It is entirely possible that the Democrats could capture the Assembly this year and the state Senate in 2026. (V)