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Wall Street Is Preparing for the Election

Depending on who wins the election, some industries will do well and others will do badly. If Kamala Harris wins, then companies making solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles will do very well. So will home builders, especially those specializing in entry-level homes. If Donald Trump wins, then the above will be losers, but coal mines, oil companies, drug companies, crypto exchanges and banks could do well. DJT stock ($35.91 yesterday) will head straight to the moon. Companies that make, import, or sell things from China will be in trouble. Defense contractors are a bit tricky. Companies that make weapons that can be used in Ukraine will benefit from a Harris presidency and lose from a Trump one, but general defense spending will probably go up more generally under Trump.

Smart and professional investors know this, so Election Day and the day after will probably be extremely volatile on the stock markets. Any small news tidbit about who is going to win will move markets, possibly very quickly. If turnout is up or down in some state, that is big news. If it rains in Atlanta, certain sectors could zoom and others crash. The weather report in Milwaukee could move markets fast.

If the winner is not known on Election Night, a real possibility, the volatility will continue until the fat lady sings or it's all over, whichever comes first. As the last few precincts in Las Vegas or Tucson begin reporting results on Nov. 6 (or maybe later), buy and sell orders will pour in.

Stock exchanges, brokers, banks, and other financial players are expecting a huge amount of volatility as orders pour in every time some tiny tidbit of news affecting the election is released. They are preparing for it by hiring more staff and upgrading their IT and telecomm systems to be able to handle the load smoothly. They don't want angry customers later screaming: "It took you 3 seconds to execute my order and in that time the stock dropped/rose by $8." (V)



This item appeared on www.electoral-vote.com. Read it Monday through Friday for political and election news, Saturday for answers to reader's questions, and Sunday for letters from readers.

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