Oct.24

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Dem 50

   

GOP 50

House Democrats Are Curtailing Spending in Some Races

Sounds grim, no? Democrats don't have enough money to defend key seats? Two more years of Speaker Mike Johnson? Actually, no. It is the opposite. In a number of competitive races, the House Majority PAC (HMP), the House Democrats' main PAC, is so confident of their horse winning that they don't think spending money for them is a good investment anymore. They would rather divert money to tighter races. Specifically, the HMP has canceled planned ads in certain districts in Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin because they don't think they are needed.

The ad time was reserved months ago, when it was cheaper, because the HMP was afraid that Joe Biden would drag their candidates down. That fear has been resolved. Here are the places where ads have been pulled:

• Kansas: Rep. Sharice Davids (D-KS) is in a tough district, KS-03, which is R+1. She ought to be in big trouble. She is a good fundraiser and has raised and spent $3.3 million. Her Republican opponent, Prasanth Reddy, has spent only $502,000. The HMP thinks Davids is doing well enough on her own that they are not going to spend more on her so they canceled the $318,000 worth of ad time they had reserved.
  
  
• Michigan: The HMP had reserved $603,000 worth of air time in the district of Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-MI). The MI-03 district is D+1, slightly better than Davids', but still very balanced. Scholten has raised $4,756,570 and had $1,820,580 on hand as of Sept. 30. Her opponent, Paul Hudson, has raised $882,571 and had $154,877 on hand as of Sept. 30. The Democrats don't think Scholten needs any more help. She's also doing fine on her own. It is surprising the Republicans didn't think Hudson was worth helping in such a competitive district.
  
  
• Nevada: Three of the four Nevada representatives are Democrats and all are in the greater Las Vegas area. The HMC had $3.5 million worth of air time reserved, but their three opponents are all awful and the NRCC didn't help them, so the HMP is not bothering. They expect all three to be reelected easily. The fourth district is very red and Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) will be reelected easily.
  
  
• New Hampshire: Both New Hampshire districts are competitive. NH-01 is technically EVEN and the open NH-02 is D+2. But Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH) in the first one and Maggie Goodlander, the Democrat running for the second one, are doing so well, the HMP didn't think they needed any help.
  
  
• New Jersey: When Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ) jumped into the Senate race, the HMP reserved $1.5 million to defend his open seat. For some reason, the Republicans didn't bother seriously contesting it, probably because D+5 looked like too steep a hill to climb. Now the HMP can spend the $1.5 million somewhere else.
  
  
• Ohio: OH-01 is a badly gerrymandered D+2 district in the southwest part of the state covering Cincinnati and areas north of it. It is represented by Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH), who had $1,922,572 on hand at the end of September. His opponent, Orlando Sonza, had only $308,319, so the HMP canceled $1 million in planned ads.
  
  
• Pennsylvania: PA-17 is an EVEN district near Pittsburgh. The HMP reserved $1 million to help Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-PA). However, he had $1,651,658 on hand vs. the $625,012 his opponent Robert Mercuri had, so the HMP decided to save the $1 million planned for him.
  
  
• Wisconsin: Here is the one example where the HMP gave up. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) in WI-01 (R+3), in the southeastern corner of the state, had over $3 million in the bank on Sept. 30. His opponent, Peter Barca, had only $98,000. The HMP saw the handwriting on the wall and it said: "Get out of here right now."
  

Money isn't everything, but these ad cancellations do show the Democrats' confidence in all but one of the races.

The next House is likely to be closely divided, just as the current one is. This means every vote will be needed to elect a speaker. If the Democrats get 218 seats, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will be elected on the first ballot. If the Republicans get 220 seats or maybe even 225 seats, the balloting will go on for days because the Freedom Caucus is going to cause trouble. There are at least four House Republicans who are a hard "no" on Johnson, and probably more. Johnson tried to appease them by saying that he will not make a deal with the Democrats to keep his job. Fine, but then he is going to need 218 Republican votes. If the GOP has only 220-225 seats, that may not be enough and we could get a repeat of the drama around Kevin McCarthy's election as speaker. (V)