Dem
50
GOP
50
The House is not in session now since most members are out campaigning. Two members who don't need to campaign are Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), whose district is R+14, and House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, whose district is R+23. So they have lots of time to cook up what they are planning to do if Republicans get the trifecta on Nov. 5 (or Nov. 6 or Nov. 7 or Nov. 8 or... Jan. 2). Even though they are more familiar with the House rules than the Senate rules, they do know that unless the Republicans abolish the filibuster, they are not likely to get much through the Senate except by using the budget reconciliation process. So reconciliation is what Johnson and Scalise are thinking about.
Their top priorities are: (1) cutting taxes and (2) funding Donald Trump's pet border wall. Unlike Trump, they understand Mexico is not going to pay for it, so Congress is going to have to. If the wall is more than a short stretch that Trump will need for a photo op, and it actually covers all of the entire 2,000-mile long border that is not already fenced, it will be very expensive. However, cutting taxes while greatly increasing spending is going to rev up inflation. Some Republicans, more likely in the Senate than in the House, might check with the 23 economists in the item above about this for confirmation and not be willing to have inflation shoot up when they control all three branches of government and won't be able to blame the Democrats so easily (even if Fox will try).
Cutting taxes is something Republicans love to do, but this time it might not be so simple. Normally, Republicans cut the top marginal tax rates and the corporate rate to keep their donors happy. But Trump has campaigned on not taxing tips, overtime, or Social Security. These are not small items. If Congress actually did these things it would not only blow a huge hole in the budget, but it would make the donors angry, because that's not what they want at all. They want lower marginal tax rates at the top, both for individuals and corporations. It is true that hedge fund managers often work hard and put in lots of overtime, but they don't get paid by the hour. It would take some very, very creative accounting to make a billion-dollar deal completed on a Sunday at 10 p.m. count as overtime and not be taxed.
Some Republicans also want to slash the subsidies in the Affordable Care Act. That could partially counter the spending on the wall. The tradeoff of worse health care for poor people in exchange for fewer immigrants might well appeal to Republican senators, as long as it doesn't rev up inflation. The Republicans have burnt their fingers on Obamacare before and might not want to try again, especially if their margins in each chamber are tiny since they could lose them in 2026. (V)