Dem
50
GOP
50
Democrats worry. That's what they do best. Their #1 worry is about Donald Trump winning the election. Their #2 worry is about Kamala Harris winning but the Republicans controlling the Senate and blocking Harris at every turn. The last time a Democrat was elected president and had to immediately face a Republican-controlled Senate was when Stephen Grover Cleveland was first elected in 1884, and that was a far less partisan time. Indeed, Cleveland himself was almost as Republican as he was Democratic, and even endorsed a Republican (William McKinley) to succeed him in the White House.
Harris is way behind on planning her possible transition. Presidential candidates normally begin planning their transition 6 months in advance of the election. Harris didn't have that luxury. She also has to consider the very real possibility of a Republican Senate. Most of the current Democratic seats are probably safe, but to get to even 50 seats, the Democrat (or independent) has to win one of Florida, Montana, Nebraska or Texas. In current polling, only Dan Osborn (I) is leading (in Nebraska) and there is no guarantee he will caucus with the Democrats, as the four current independents do.
Harris' first task will be getting the Cabinet confirmed. This could require at least one Republican vote for each nominee, and that Republican might just ask for something in return. The most likely Republican crossover is Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK). Unfortunately for Harris, her state's biggest industry is oil and she might demand that Harris cut out all this talk of getting rid of fossil fuels as the price for her votes. Another possibility is Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME). Her state's biggest industries are fishing, logging, and farming. That could prove easier, especially since she is up in 2026 and Murkowski is not. The Green New Deal does not threaten the profits of the lobster industry.
Since cabinet appointments never expire, Harris could keep any current secretaries indefinitely, and possibly move them to new posts. She could also appoint acting secretaries for a limited amount of time. A real Hail Mary play would be for Biden to appoint Harris' choices in December and have the current Senate ram them through in a lame-duck session, but that would really poison the well.
Harris could make a deal with the new Republican leader, either John Thune or John Cornyn, but she doesn't know either of them well at all. Still, if they want to make a break with Trump and take back their party, working with Harris could be a start.
Cabinet and other appointments would only be the first problem for Harris. There are plenty more. The government is scheduled to shut down on Dec. 20. Probably the can will be kicked to past Jan. 20, especially if the Republicans capture both chambers of Congress. In any event, Thune or Cornyn might demand major changes to the budget in return for agreeing to bring nominations to a vote. With Sens. Joe Manchin (I-WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) out of the way in January, the Democrats will be united, but if they have only 48 or 49 seats, they will need Republican votes and Harris will probably be forced to give Republicans a lot of what they want on the budget to avoid a shutdown. Her political skills will be tested to the max within weeks of her inauguration.
On policy goals, Harris will have to do triage. Making abortion legal in all states or fighting climate change would be out of the question. Some of the provisions of the 2017 Tax Cut Act will expire in 2026. The Republicans will fight to keep some of them so there has to be a tax bill. Cutting taxes for ordinary people might be doable, as long as millionaires and billionaires got even bigger cuts. Raising taxes on the rich will not fly. Forget it.
With Trump no longer calling the shots, there are a few things that might get through, especially if the Democrats control the House. Republicans really want a border bill and Harris has said she would sign the Lankford-Murphy bill that Trump vetoed, even though he wasn't president last spring when he vetoed it. Since Republicans really want that bill, Harris could offer a trade: I'll sign the Lankford-Murphy bill if you will pass a bill for incentives to build an extra million houses. Republicans could then claim credit for adding to the housing supply. They might even go along with subsidies for first-time home buyers.
In short, if Harris were to focus only on relatively neutral things, like the border, housing, infrastructure, tax cuts, creating jobs (in manufacturing), helping small businesses, reining in China, reducing the cost of health care, etc., she could get some things done. But this would mean abandoning all the red meat (blue meat?) that her base craves, like action on abortion, ending gerrymandering, appointing liberal judges, phasing out fossil fuels, and all programs that help poor people.
Could the Democrats win the Senate in 2026 and then carry out her program? Always possible, but an uphill battle. Here is the 2026 Senate map:
Next time around, Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) has to defend his seat, probably against Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA). He won't have Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) on the ballot then to get Black voters to the polls in droves. He could easily lose. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) might be in some danger, but probably the other Democrats are safe.
What about pickup opportunities? One obvious one is Susan Collins' seat. Could Maine absorb $100 million in TV spending? Are there enough TV and radio stations available? And who would the Democrats run? The obvious candidate would be Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME). She beat crazyman Paul LePage in 2022 by 13 points, but Collins is not crazy and has won five Senate elections in Maine. She won't be an easy target. However, she would be 74 at the start of a potential sixth term and might decide that enough is enough and retire, in which case Mills would be the favorite.
A second possible pickup would be North Carolina, especially if Harris and gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein (D) win the Tarheel State this year. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is up in 2026. In 2014, Tillis beat incumbent Kay Hagan by 1.56%. In 2020, he beat Cal Cunningham by 1.75%. However, Cunningham had a wardrobe malfunction, specifically concerning his zipper. It got stuck in the open position. Absent that, he might have won. In any event, North Carolina is getting bluer every year, so if the Democrats can find a good candidate, they could win that one. The obvious choice is outgoing governor Roy Cooper (67).
If Mills and Cooper can win, the Democrats could net one seat if Ossoff loses and two seats if Ossoff hangs on, assuming they don't lose any other seats. (V)