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It is pumpkin season and also leak season (though hopefully there will be no leaky pumpkins). Politico has obtained not one, but two leaked Republican memos about the Senate races and they are in conflict.
One memo is from the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), which is controlled by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). The other is from the NRSC. Both of these are supposed to be well-tuned into the races. In any event, they are spending hundreds of millions of dollars on the races and it might be better for them if they were on the same page.
First, they agree that Arizona, Nevada, and Maryland are lost causes, but that Montana looks hopeful. They disagree on Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. With West Virginia a done deal, Republicans need to flip one other seat to take over the Senate. Maybe it will be Montana, but the groups don't want to put all their eggs in that one basket. Three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is very well known and popular and could pull it off in the end.
The NRSC found that wealthy Mercedes Benz dealer Bernie Moreno is leading Sherrod Brown (D-OH) by 2 points and Donald Trump was ahead of Kamala Harris by 11 points in Ohio. The SLF had Brown up by 6 and Trump up by only 4. Every single quality public poll so far has Brown ahead:
Michigan has an open seat due to the retirement of Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI). The NRSC has Elissa Slotkin up by only 1 point over Mike Rogers. The SLF has Slotkin up by 8 points. We think Slotkin is way ahead. Here are the polls we have:
In Pennsylvania, the NRSC has Bob Casey leading Dave McCormick by only one point. The SLF says no, Casey is ahead by 2 points. The data give a somewhat different picture, with Casey having led all year:
In Wisconsin, the NRSC has California banker Eric Hovde leading Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) by 1 point. The SLF has Baldwin ahead. Here is our data:
The last two are close and the difference is just statistical noise, but the Republican PACs are seeing different results than we are seeing in the graphs. Seems odd. The first two are very different and could affect where money is spent. For example, if Slotkin is crushing Rogers, it would probably be best to let him sink or swim on his own and spend the money elsewhere. (V)