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As Yogi Berra once famously pointed out, it ain't over 'til it's over. Have we had the traditional October surprise yet? Not really, but there is still time.
Term "October surprise," meaning a late-breaking external event that can sway a lot of undecided voters (and maybe some decided voters, as well), originated in 1980, when Ronald Reagan'a campaign manager, Bill Casey, warned that maybe Jimmy Carter was planning an "October surprise" by making a deal to free the 52 hostages held by Iran. It didn't happen because Iran wanted Reagan to win, as demonstrated by it releasing the hostages just minutes after Reagan was inaugurated. But the term stuck.
In 1992, Iran was again in the news. Reagan secretly sold arms to Iran to get the release of American hostages with the intention of using the proceeds to arm the Contras in Nicaragua, in violation of an order from Congress not to do that. This became known as the Iran-Contra scandal. On the Friday before the election. former Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger was indicted for covering it up and it came out candidate George H.W. Bush knew much more about it than he admitted. This certainly helped cement his defeat. The story broke on Oct. 30, so it was definitely an October surprise and it wasn't a pleasant one for Bush.
In Oct. 2000, a reporter in Maine revealed that in 1976—24 years earlier—George W. Bush had been pulled over for drunk driving. Bush admitted it and said that he had never mentioned it to save his children the embarrassment. Karl Rove, Bush's brain and polling expert, later said that the incident cost Bush five states and almost the presidency. In most countries, a traffic violation a quarter of a century ago would not be disqualifying for leadership now, but America is exceptional (albeit not in the way some Americans think it is).
Sometimes the October surprise gives way to its cousin, the November surprise. In 2004, 4 days before the election, a video from Osama Bin Laden surface and warned the U.S. not to strike Muslim nations. Democratic candidate John Kerry later blamed his defeat on it because it put terrorism back in the spotlight on Election Day.
In 2008, John McCain was campaigning on the "fundamentals of our economy are strong" to convince voters that he could continue the successes of the George W. Bush administration. Then the storied investment firm Lehman Brothers collapsed, taking the whole economy with it. McCain was flummoxed and didn't know how to respond. He flailed all of October and that did him in.
In 2016, 11 days before the election, then-FBI Director James Comey announced: "More e-mails!" and that sunk Hillary Clinton who was leading in the polls at the time. Remember, much of Donald Trump's campaign was about her private e-mail server, which admittedly she should not have used, but which in reality was probably safer than the State Dept.'s, because the Russians didn't know it even existed.
Will there be an October surprise this year? We won't know until we know. But with so much early voting now, even a really big surprise—say, Ivanka saying that Dad is a slimy crook and she's voting for Harris—the number of votes that could be changed is smaller than in the past. However, maybe the surprise will be that there is no surprise. That would certainly be a surprise. (V)