Dem
50
GOP
50
We have no doubt that the presence of the word "polling" and the word "blue" has given 100% of readers the wrong impression as to what this piece is about. We shall rectify that promptly.
Although "blue zone" might sound like something political (e.g., "Urban areas in the United States tend to be blue zones"), it's not. A blue zone is one of the places in the world (e.g., Okinawa Prefecture, Japan; Nuoro Province, Sardinia, Italy; Icaria, Greece) where residents are known for being disproportionately likely to live long lives. They are called blue zones because the researchers who first studied them used blue pens to mark up their maps.
Much attention has been given to cracking this code, and trying to figure out what makes these folks different. Is it something in their diet, like lots of fish and healthy oils, or lots of veggies, or moderate alcohol consumption? Is it something in their environment, like clean air? Is it a simple, rural, low-stress lifestyle? It is genetic? Something else?
Last week, Saul Newman, of the University College London, published a study in which he says he knows what the answer is. It turns out that the secret to the blue zones is that... they are total crap, and that residents in those places are no more or less long-lived than anyone else. In fact, what these areas generally have in common are three things: lots of poor people, shaky record-keeping when it comes to things like birth certificates, and pensions that only kick in at a certain age. You can see how these things would combine to have people declaring themselves to be 10 or 15 years older than they really are.
In other words, this is a "lies, damned lies, and statistics" story. Sometimes the numbers lie. And we bring it up because our gut feel tells us that there are issues with the polls this year. We don't know it, we just suspect it. And so, we thought we would start running items 3-4 times a week, from now to the election, looking at the matter from various angles. Maybe our suspicions will be sustained. Maybe not. In any event, we're going to give it the old college try. We have several items sketched out (just questions, not answers yet), but if you think there's an angle we should consider, let us know at comments@electoral-vote.com. (Z)