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Republicans May Have a Problem with Justice

Yes, some of them, especially Donald Trump, are having problems with the DoJ, but this item is not about that. It is about soon-to-be Sen.-elect Jim Justice (R-WV), the governor of West Virginia until Jan. 3, 2025, when the new Senate convenes.

Although Justice is a sitting governor, he is rarely in Charleston, the state capital. At first, he refused to live in the governor's mansion, despite a state law mandating that. He moved there only after he was sued about it. He is a coal baron and the richest man in the state, and his home is a lot nicer than the governor's mansion. Even now, he is rarely in the capital and often aides can't even reach him. Some observers are wondering whether Justice will buy or rent an apartment in D.C., Maryland, or Virginia, or will just commute from West Virginia. After all, a governor has actual work to do every day and a senator doesn't, especially a junior senator from an impoverished state. If Justice couldn't be bothered doing the work of a governor, will he be bothered to do the much lighter work of a senator? Say what you want about Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV), but he made over 95% of the votes in the Senate. He was a full-time senator.

When asked about Justice, Manchin said: "Only thing I know is that amount of time and effort—and you see us running back and forth and running to all different things—takes an awful lot of energy, a lot of time. But I'm hoping he's able to represent the people of West Virginia the way he should, if he becomes elected" (our emphasis). "Hoping." Not even "expecting." West Virginia state Del. Mike Pushkin (D) said: "I don't think anybody in West Virginia honestly believes that Jim Justice is going to show up in Washington, D.C., regularly." Del. Geno Chiarelli (R) said: "He's not always around." The AP managed to get ahold of Justice's schedule in 2019. He rarely met with his own cabinet and was largely absent from the statehouse. Since then, it has gotten worse.

Among other things, Justice is reputed to be in poor health. All of the people interviewed for the linked article brought up his health. One of them said "Big Jim," as he is known, has trouble standing and walking. Some state legislators were speculating that he might not be able to finish his term as governor.

Justice's poor health and lack of interest in governing could turn out to be more than a footnote. Suppose the Senate is split 50-50. That would happen if the Democrats can win just one of Montana, Florida, Texas, and Nebraska and hold all of their other states (except West Virginia). Then if Trump wins and Justice does not show up, nominations and bills could go down 50-49. Sure, Republicans will politely ask him to please buy a beautiful condo in the District, Maryland, or Virginia and show up. Or maybe buy Trump's old hotel and live there. However, a 73-year-old billionaire who is not used to being on the bottom of the totem pole and doesn't even care how his own state is governed, is certainly not used to taking directions from anyone, especially since he can barely walk, didn't really want the job, and will have no power at all in the Senate. If being a senator is too much trouble for Justice (and his ego allows it), he could do a bait-and-switch by resigning from the Senate. Then the governor elected on Nov. 5, most likely Patrick Morrisey (R), could appoint a healthier Republican to replace him.

If Kamala Harris wins and the Republicans control the Senate 51-49 and Justice is a no show, then votes may go 50-49, so all it would take is one Republican defection to confirm nominations and pass bills. In that situation, we could imagine a President Harris negotiating with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) on every nomination, which could result in most nominees being centrist women and being confirmed. Republicans will be loathe to punish Murkowski for fear of her becoming an independent and caucusing with the Democrats.

If Harris wins and the Republicans take the Senate 51-49, there is an outside chance that Harris will offer Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) a cabinet post, probably Dept. of Homeland Security, since she was chair of that Senate committee and knows the material. She is up for reelection in 2026. If she sees popular three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) go down in flames to a carpetbagger from Minnesota due to increased partisanship in the country, the 71-year-old Collins may conclude she is toast in 2026 in blue Maine and decide to end her career as a cabinet officer rather than risk defeat in 2 years. If she took a job in a Harris administration, Gov. Janet Mills (D-ME) would appoint her replacement. This scenario is not likely, but is possible. (V)



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