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Right now, we have Trump leading by 3 points in the Silver State. So, is Nevada becoming a red state? Maybe. If you look at all the polls in Nevada, Trump has been ahead in 24 of them, the Democrat has been ahead in 17 of them, and 4 have been ties. However, if you look at only the polls taken after July 21, when Kamala Harris announced her candidacy, she has been ahead in 13, Trump has been ahead in 4 and two were ties. So, it is fair to say it is a toss-up. Either one of them could win the state.
But downballot, it is a whole different ball of wax. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has been ahead in all 15 Senate polls of Nevada, with leads ranging from a minimum of 8 points to a maximum of 18 points. Not much of a tossup there. One Republican operative said: "Sam Brown has run a very, very, very bad campaign, one of the worst campaigns we've seen in Nevada in a while." He thought that Brown would lose to Rosen by at least 6 or 7 points, even if Trump carries the state.
If Brown loses, he can use the blame-the-wife excuse. In an interview with NBC News earlier this year, his wife admitted to having had an abortion. Brown has had a hard time defending that and reconciling it with his previous support for a Texas law banning all abortions after 20 weeks with no exceptions for rape or incest. Voters don't like hypocrisy. As a candidate, he has said he won't vote for a nationwide abortion ban. They also don't like flip-flopping, unless Trump does it.
Nevada has four House seats. Three of the districts are swing districts: NV-01 (D+3), NV-03 (D+1), and NV-04 (D+3). All currently have a Democratic incumbent. Despite the close PVIs, the former chair of the Nevada Republican Party, Amy Tarkanian, said of them: "I think the majority of Republicans in the state probably feel hopeless." They could have flipped all of them, but all three challengers are weak and underfunded and it would be a huge upset if any of them won. NV-02 is R+8 and Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) is expected to keep his job easily. (V)