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Earlier this week, we noted that the world is waiting to see how Israel responds to the recent missile strike against them launched by Iran. We also pointed out that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu was taking his own counsel on the counter-attack, and not taking much interest in what the Biden administration had to say. This raised the possibility of things taking a very ugly turn, which could potentially blow up in the face of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and the Democrats.
It would seem that Netanyahu's ears were more open than previously reported, as there was news yesterday that he and Biden have been hashing things out before Israel makes its move. According to off-the-record sources, the two leaders are moving toward an agreement where Israel responds more aggressively than the U.S. would prefer, but in a manner not likely to dramatically escalate tensions in the region.
Not much more is known right now and, in any event, the story won't really be written until someone in Israel pushes the "launch" button. However, the news is worth passing along, in view of our previous item. Further, it also gives us an opportunity to add a follow-up to that item, courtesy of reader P.B. in St. Louis, MO. As we have noted many times, we are WAY out of our element when it comes to Middle East geopolitics. By contrast, P.B. has multiple claims to relevant expertise, including a Masters in International Political Economy from Washington University in St. Louis (thesis on autocratic institutions and Middle Eastern politics), and numerous family members in Israel (thanks to a Jewish-American spouse), as well as friends in Lebanon and Iran. This circle of acquaintances spans the political spectrum.
Here is what P.B. had to add to our earlier piece:
In your posting, you noted that the Biden administration has been all-in on Israel and referenced a fantastic Sherlock Holmes/Spock's ancestor quote to explain this observation. I think that you're generally correct, but I believe that I can offer some additional context and analysis.
The Biden administration is looking at a situation where an anti-American coalition is strengthening and moving against U.S. interests around the globe. The core of this coalition is Russia and Iran, along with their various proxies throughout the world. Russia has a geopolitical interest in controlling its neighboring states up to the borders of the former Russian Empire, if not beyond, and maintains proxy groups in Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia, etc., in pursuit of this aim. Iran has a geopolitical interest in controlling its neighboring states up to the borders of the former Persian empire, if not beyond, and maintains proxy groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, etc. in pursuit of this aim. These interests are naturally opposed by other states in Europe and the Middle East, as well as by the U.S., which has a geopolitical interest in a friendly (or at least neutral and politically fractured) Europe and Middle East. In addition to geopolitical concerns, the current governments of Russia and Iran have strong ideological incentives to work together and oppose the U.S. Vladimir Putin came of age during the Cold War and sees the U.S. and NATO as key ideological opponents, and the Ayatollah-led Iranian regime arose from the ashes of a U.S.-backed secular monarchy and publicly opposes the continued existence of the U.S. and Israel on religious and ideological grounds.
Over the past two decades, Russia and Iran have strengthened significantly and seen a great deal of geopolitical success. Both countries are heavily dependent on hydrocarbon revenues, and both have been able to bring in massive amounts of capital by selling hydrocarbons to Europe, India and China. Russia has used its capital to defeat the Chechen separatist movement and install a puppet government in Chechnya, invade Georgia to install puppet governments in the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions, prop up the dictatorship of Aleksandr Lukashenko in Belarus, invade Moldova to weaken the pro-EU government and prop up a breakaway government in the Transnistria region, prop up the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad in Syria after the Arab Spring protests, invade Ukraine to seize and annex Crimea and the eastern Donbas region, and most recently invade Ukraine in an attempt to entirely destroy the state. Russia has also sold or given missile and nuclear technology to Iran and created a robust digital espionage and propaganda machine to drive political conflict and discord in the West. Iran has used its capital to fund allied militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, destabilizing these countries and weakening the influence of Iran's rivals in Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the U.S. They have also sought to create militias to destabilize Jordan, but have so far not succeeded. Iran has also sold or given drone technology to Russia for its war in Ukraine as well as various ammunition and other support. On top of this, the U.S. failure and withdrawal from Afghanistan has removed a major U.S. threat from Iran's east.
Knowing all of this, and with decades of foreign policy experience under their collective belts, the Biden administration has pursued a strategy of opposing the Russia-Iran coalition wherever possible, swallowing any domestic political concerns, with some impressive results. The war in Ukraine has ground to a stalemate and consumed a massive amount of Russian resources. Sweden and Finland, two countries historically neutral since the 19th century, have joined NATO and moved entirely into the U.S. orbit. Azerbaijan, a geopolitical rival of both Iran and Russia, has won their three-decade conflict with neighboring Russian ally Armenia (with Israeli military aid). The Biden administration reconciled with Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia (and a morally concerning leader to say the least), and as a result the price of oil has dropped (which squeezes the finances of Russia and Iran) and Saudi Arabia has moved closer to a formal recognition of Israel. In response to the latter, Hamas launched its massacre against Israeli civilians last October in an attempt to change the narrative and halt Israeli-Saudi normalization. In this they have so far succeeded, but the other results have been devastating for Iran's proxy groups. With aid from the Biden administration, Israel has eliminated Hamas as a military force and reduced the organization to a low-level insurgency in Gaza. They have also dramatically reduced the combat effectiveness of the much larger Hezbollah organization in Lebanon and eliminated the vast majority of their leadership. This significantly tips the balance of power in the region against Iran and Russia.
The Biden administration has done all of this in spite of strong domestic opposition to Ukraine from the U.S. right (which is not terribly challenging for a Democratic administration to resist), and to Israel from the U.S. left (which is much more challenging). There have been several studies suggesting that much of the right-wing anti-Ukraine propaganda as well as the left-wing anti-Israel propaganda can be traced back to the same sources associated with the Russian government and their attempt to generate political discord in the West. So far the U.S. has resisted this discord and acted firmly against the Russia-Iran coalition wherever possible. We shall see if that continues!
Thanks, P.B.! This certainly helps make the picture clearer for us, and we hope it does the same for readers. (Z)