Oct.11

electoral-vote.com

Dem 50

   

GOP 50

Trump Campaign: The Wrong States Are on the Radar

Well, this is weird. Donald Trump's campaign is finalizing his rally schedule, and they've got major events planned for those notable swing states of Colorado, California, Illinois and New York. Joe Biden won all of those states by at least 13 points in 2020, and his average margin of victory across the four was 20 points.

Here is the official explanation for this curious approach from the Trump campaign:

Choosing high-impact settings makes it so the media can't look away and refuse to cover the issues and the solutions President Trump is offering. We live in a nationalized media environment and the national media's attention on these large-scale, outside-the-norm settings increases the reach of his message across the country and penetrates in every battle ground state.

We suppose it is possible they really believe this. But if so, they are delusional. First, Trump gets plenty of coverage. Second, whatever amount of coverage he gets, it's not going to change because his rally is in Riverside, CA, instead of Butler, PA.

We have a few alternate possibilities, and while we are not in love with them, we'll pass them along:

1. Trump has misunderstood the strategy currently being pursued by Kamala Harris. There is value in visiting counties, in swing states, dominated by the other party. An extra vote in Brunswick, GA, counts as much as one in Atlanta. On the other hand, going to states dominated by the other party won't help your electoral vote total.
   
   
2. Trump is trying to raise funds (see above) by connecting with new donors.
   
   
3. Trump's rallies have been struggling to draw attendees. Perhaps he values a full house above all else, either for visual purposes, or for ego purposes, or both.

Whatever is going on, this is definitely as unconventional, and appears to be as unwise, as the Trump campaign's ground game strategy. It's less than a month until we see if it blows up in his face. (Z)