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We got a question from reader G.D. in Round Lake, IL that we are going to address now, instead of waiting until Saturday:
Would you classify the impending hurricane lined up for Florida to be one of those Unknown Unknowns that also qualifies as an October Surprise? Considering how close Florida might be, and the Senate race there, depending on where it hits and the level of sustained damages, could this drastically change the outcome—especially if it primarily impacts rural (Trump) supporters more than others?
Truth be told, it really shouldn't be a much of a surprise. We know when hurricanes are most likely to hit the U.S. (mid-September through mid-October), and there are also ways to protect against them, and to try to minimize damage. And yet, the leadership of the various states that have been hit hard does not seem willing to take those steps. Which means we are left with what is, indeed, a potential October Surprise that could affect some pretty big electoral outcomes—the presidential races in North Carolina, Georgia and Florida; the Senate race in Florida; etc.
To illustrate what we mean, consider this piece from The New York Times, which focuses specifically on North Carolina. Over the past 20 years or so, there have been numerous debates over regulations that would make homes more hurricane-resistant. For example, in 2015, the non-profit International Code Council recommended a requirement that new houses in flood zones be built at least one foot above the expected height of a major flood. The problem is that such a rule, like many other hurricane-proofing regulations, increases the cost of building a house. So, while most states adopted the recommendation promptly, North Carolina did not do so until 2019, and even then it was made an option for local authorities to consider, not a mandatory statewide rule. We are witnessing the unfortunate effects of that choice (and many others) right now.
Meanwhile, to whatever extent the hurricanes have been a "surprise," and to whatever extent their effects have disproportionately been visited on right-leaning voters, you would think that politicians on both sides of the aisle would know the hurricane playbook by heart. And yet, the Republicans have been putting on a staggering performance of tone deafness and lack of concern. We'll run through three examples from just the past few days.
To start, and most significantly, FEMA is about to run short on cash. It can handle immediate needs—say, opening temporary shelters—even once Milton hits. But it won't be able to begin work on long-term recovery—say, rebuilding roads—without more funding. No problem; Congress can just return to Washington for a couple of days, and appropriate some more money, right? Joe Biden would sign the bill in a heartbeat. Not so fast, though, as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said yesterday that he's not willing to commit to calling everyone back to Washington, and that he may just wait until after the election before addressing the issue.
Johnson's official reason for this is that "it takes a while to calculate the actual damages, and the states are going to need some time to do that." One cannot take this seriously. There are many things that are known right now (like, all the roads and bridges that are wrecked). There are many things that won't be known for months and months (like, the exact price tag to fix all the infrastructure in North Carolina). There will not be some magical level of financial clarity that just so happens to be reached a day or two after the election.
So, what is Johnson's real game here? We have three ideas:
Maybe we're right about all of these. Maybe only some of them. But we very much doubt we are 0-for-3. And if any of these theories is correct, then it means Johnson is putting politics over the well-being of his fellow citizens. You might think someone who says he is a follower of Christ, and who comes from Louisiana (which also has hurricane challenges) would have more humane priorities. Apparently not, though.
Moving on, Donald Trump continues (along with many other Republicans) to spout nonsensical conspiracy theories. This is absolute madness to us, from both a human perspective and a political perspective. Who on Earth is impressed by this craziness? Meanwhile, we can hardly think of a better way to alienate a voter than to make them into a cheap political pawn while they are navigating a life-changing crisis. And we're not the only ones who see it this way. State Sen. Kevin Corbin (R-NC) is, unlike us, actually living it. And he took to Facebook yesterday to, quite literally, beg his fellow Republicans to knock it off with all the conspiratorial crap. Trump also got absolutely roasted by the editorial board of the Charlotte Observer, which wrote:
Western North Carolina is trying to pick up the pieces left behind by Hurricane Helene, which decimated the region, leaving communities destroyed and a death toll in the triple digits.
This is not a situation to capitalize on for political gain. But former President Donald Trump has politicized the situation at every turn, spreading falsehoods and conspiracies that fracture the community instead of bringing it together...
Let's be clear: Western North Carolina is not a political football. This is not a campaign opportunity. The most unhelpful thing any politician—or anyone else—can do right now is spread misinformation and tell people that their government isn't doing anything to help them.
Sowing the seeds of political division is always an unnecessary and tiresome endeavor. But doing so in times of great need, when unity is paramount, is particularly shameful.
We don't see a single word there we disagree with.
Finally, given the damage done to Florida by Helene, and the damage that is expected to come from Milton, both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have tried to get Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) on the phone to discuss next steps. The two Democrats know that this is a time to put party aside; they've already had constructive conversations with both Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) and Gov. Brian Kemp (R-GA). However, DeSantis refused to take the phone calls, because he said that they "seemed political." Kamala Harris was asked about this on Monday, and told a reporter:
You know, moments of crisis, if nothing else, should really be the moment that anyone who calls themselves a leader says they're gonna put politics aside and put the people first. People are in desperate need of support right now. And playing political games at this moment in these crisis situations, these are the height of the emergency situations. It's just utterly irresponsible, and it is selfish, and it is about political gamesmanship instead of doing the job that you took an oath to do, which is to put the people first.
Again, we don't see anything here we disagree with.
Anyhow, back to the opening question. Maybe the hurricane/hurricanes were an October Surprise, and one that will work to the detriment of the Republicans. We aren't sure about that. What we are more confident about is that voters in those three states are going to notice the responses from both political parties, and some of them are going to be influenced by that. To put it another way, the most prominent Republicans in the country—Donald Trump, Mike Johnson, Ron DeSantis, etc.—are taking a "maybe" October Surprise and converting it into a "definite" October Surprise. (Z)