Dem
50
GOP
50
Arizona will be an exciting place to watch on Nov. 5. The presidential race could go either way. There is a bitterly fought Senate race, although Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) is consistently ahead in the money race and in the polling. Three House races are competitive. In AZ-01, Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) is fighting for his political life against Amish Shah (D) in an R+2 district that Schweikert barely won in 2022 against an unknown and underfunded candidate. This time Shah is going to get $6 million from the House Majority PAC and it is a presidential year, to boot. In AZ-04, Rep. Greg Stanton (D-AZ) is facing Kelly Jones in a D+2 district. In AZ-06, Rep Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) has a rematch on his hands against former state Sen. Kirsten Engel (D), whom he beat by 1.5 points in 2012 in an R+3 district. This district is a top priority of the DCCC. Oh, and there is the abortion initiative on the statewide ballot, too.
Want more action? Republicans control the state Senate 16-14, with every member up this year. Republicans also control the state House, 31-29, with every member up this year. If Democrats pick up two seats in each chamber, they will get the trifecta.
Not enough excitement for you? Well, there are two retention elections on the ballot for state Supreme Court justices, both of whom voted to maintain a Civil War-era abortion law that is extremely unpopular in the state. Pro-choice groups are trying to fire both justices. If they are fired, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D-AZ) will appoint their successors, who will also have to face retention elections in the future.
Anti-choice forces know that they are going to have trouble defending anti-choice justices, so they are trying to do an end run on the issue. Instead of supporting the justices, they have placed Proposition 137 on the ballot. It would end all retention elections for justices permanently, and would invalidate the two on the ballot this year. If Prop. 137 wins, then the current (Republican-dominated) Arizona Supreme Court will be frozen in place. If Prop. 137 loses and both justices on the ballot are fired, this will begin a process in which Democratic appointees could get a majority on the court, as every justice comes up for a retention election every 6 years.
In short, political junkies in Arizona have a lot of action to look forward to on Nov. 5. (V)