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There is so much contradictory information out there that it is hard to understand what is actually going on. It turns out that a national election has a lot of moving parts. Who knew? For one thing, Kamala Harris is running a much bigger campaign than Donald Trump. She has spent $263 million on ads since the end of the DNC. Trump has spent $109 million since then. She also has more staff, more volunteers, a larger surrogate operation, more digital presence, and a smartphone-based organizing program. She is flying drones to put on light shows. Rally attendees get light-up bracelets. She has more money than she can use and is pulling out all stops. Trump has never faced a money-storm like this one before.
The September figures bear this out. The Harris campaign spent $192 million on ads in September to Trump's $72 million. The article linked to in this paragraph has a summary of the horse race in each of the swing states according to The Hill. Here are the polling averages from The Washington Post:
They pick the same winners we do, even though we no doubt use a different selection of polls. We both see Harris ahead in the three blue wall states and Nevada. That's just enough. Nevertheless, the race is tighter than a tick and either candidate could win.
Is there anything Harris is not doing? She's not campaigning. She is not holding many rallies and not doing many interviews. She is playing it safe and hoping the air war does the job. That works when you are 10 points ahead with a month to go. Many Democrats think that running Hillary Clinton's 2016 playbook is not a good idea when the race is tied everywhere. They want her to be out on the trail doing rallies, town halls, and interviews day and night in all seven swing states. Trump is everywhere and she is not. On Sept. 28, Trump gave a speech in Wisconsin and then went to the Georgia-Alabama football game. Harris went to a fundraiser in San Francisco. At this point, she needs to be getting more votes, not more dollars.
David Axelrod said: "There's a time at which you just have to barnstorm these battlegrounds. These races are decathlons, and there are a lot of events, and you have to do all of them because people want to test you." He doesn't think she is doing enough. If you are the underdog, you can't just pretend you are the overdog and sit on your lead.
Harris is getting plenty of advice. One Democratic operative said: "Do not go to Georgia one more time. You gotta get to Michigan. You need to live in Pennsylvania [because] the challenge is still Black voters in Philadelphia, Black voters in Detroit."
Harris does interact with the media, but not in a substantive way. She gives off-the-record briefings to reporters on her campaign plane during flights. She needs to do live interviews with local media in swing states, and she hasn't been doing that. That said, in the coming week, Harris is going to do a national media blitz. She will be on Howard Stern's radio show, Stephen Colbert's TV show, and The View. A taped interview with her will air on 60 Minutes today. Yesterday she was on the popular Call Her Daddy podcast. So she has apparently taken to heart all the criticism that she is avoiding the media.
Some Democratic strategists say that doing retail politics is worthless, and stopping at a couple of diners every day is pointless. The people she needs won't be there. The only way to reach them is by massive advertising, which she is doing. And this week, the media blitz.
Tim Walz is campaigning constantly, but it is fairly low key. The campaign is trying to minimize risks, possibly due to Walz' modest performance in the debate. But in interviews, his authenticity comes through, which can offset any facts he gets wrong. In contrast, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) is everywhere and talking to anyone who will listen. He doesn't always tell the truth, but he is very visible. (V)