Dem
50
GOP
50
Crisis averted, it would seem. Although a big chunk of the nation's dockworkers threatened to mount an extended strike that might have run through Election Day, union leadership and management have worked out a tentative, partial deal after just 3 days (with meaningful input from the Biden administration).
By "tentative," we mean that the rank-and-file members have to vote to approve the deal. That's not automatic in these situations, but it's pretty likely approval will be granted here. The new contract calls for wages to be increased $4/hour each year for the next 6 years. That adds up to a raise of 62% over the life of the contract, which is pretty good.
By "partial," we mean that some issues, most obviously the use of automation, remain to be resolved. The two sides will continue to discuss the loose ends, with a deadline of January 15 before the union will ponder another strike. That means that, unless the new agreement is rejected, this can has been kicked down the road until well after the election. These folks should consider running for Congress.
Broadly speaking, this is pretty good news for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, since the party in power always gets the blame (fair or not) for economic problems. If imports had ceased, it could have really knocked the economy for a loop. In particular, the ports affected by the strike include several where oil is imported. There was talk of $100/barrel oil, which would have caused gas prices to spike. If your party holds the White House, the last thing you want is for gas prices to jump by a buck or two a gallon a few weeks before the presidential election.
There is at least one other issue of this sort looming on the horizon. The latest jobs report came out today, and it is decent. Not great, not terrible. But the next jobs report, which will be released 3 days before Election Day, figures to be pretty bad because of the impact of Hurricane Helene. Will people hear about it when it comes out, and allow it to affect their votes? That's possible, but it's less likely to have an effect than the gas prices, given the short timeline and the fact that many people will have voted already. The blue team would prefer a good jobs report as opposed to a bad one, but if there is going to be a bad one before the election, then this is probably the best-case scenario. Well, unless the Bureau of Labor Statistics agreed to release it Saturday night at 11:00 p.m. (Z)