Dem
50
GOP
50
This item is a counterpoint to the one above. In the previous item, we discussed how Trump could take revenge on his enemies if he wins. Almost everyone who follows him closely knows that when he says he will at least try to do that, he is actually telling the truth. He might not succeed, but he will certainly try.
However, with some things he promises, the chance that he would do it is practically zero (or, as mathematicians put it, smaller than epsilon for all epsilon). In particular, Trump has now out and out said that if Congress passes a bill to ban abortion nationwide, he would veto it. If you believe that, we have not only one fine bridge in Brooklyn to sell you at a bargain price, but three bridges, all in excellent condition, for the low, low price of only $30,000 for all three.
For years, the holy grail of the anti-abortion movement has been a nationwide ban on all abortions. Now imagine that Republicans get the trifecta, however narrowly, even 218-217 in the House and 50-50 in the Senate, and then abolish the filibuster and pass a bill banning all abortions. And a Republican president vetoes it. The blowback would be bigger than Hurricane Helene. Anti-abortion leaders would be demanding Trump's head on a pike. At that moment, all vice president J.D. Vance would have to say is: "I'll sign it" and the impeachment resolution would be signed by an overwhelming majority of the House Republican caucus. Most of them don't like Trump at all, and this would be a way to get rid of him and please much of the base at the same time. Many Democrats would probably sign it as well, just to save democracy.
Trump understands this very well. If he blew an opportunity that might not come again for years, there would be blood on the floor if he vetoed the bill and it would be his blood. How would he explain signing the bill? He would simply say: "I talked to a lot of people and they said I should sign the bill and since the people want it, I will do it. I always do what the people want." The "people" in this case might be just Marjorie Dannenfelser and Ralph Reed, but he wouldn't explain that.
But even if Congress is not able to pass an abortion bill—for example, if Democrats control at least one of the chambers—Trump could (and probably will) do his best to block as many abortions as possible, as that is what his base wants. One way is to vigorously enforce the 150-year-old Comstock Act, which criminalizes sending abortifacients through the mail. Since most abortions now are medical, not surgical, banning the mailing of mifepristone would make it far more difficult for women in red states to get an abortion. Project 2025 makes a point of making sure the Comstock Act is fully enforced. (V)