Dem
50
GOP
50
We have a hard time accepting that an incumbent vs. carpetbagger race is this close. That may suggest a problem with these pollsters' samples, or their models. (Z)
| State | Democrat | D % | Republican | R % | Start | End | Pollster |
| Arizona | Ruben Gallego | 52% | Kari Lake | 41% | Sep 27 | Sep 28 | Emerson Coll. |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 47% | David McCormick | 45% | Sep 27 | Sep 28 | Emerson Coll. |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey* | 49% | David McCormick | 45% | Sep 17 | Sep 24 | Fabrizio + Anzalone |