Dem
47
GOP
53
In 2026, Democrats will be playing offense in the Senate, primarily in Maine (against Susan Collins) and in North Carolina (against Thom Tillis). Both will be in the spotlight, but Tillis somewhat more than Collins because Maine Republicans don't expect Collins to toe the party line all the time. She is slightly mavericky and that is fine with Maine Republicans. North Carolina Republicans aren't so tolerant.
This puts Tillis in a difficult situation. While Donald Trump won North Carolina by 3.3 points, Democrats won downballot, including governor, lieutenant governor, AG, SoS and superintendent of public instruction. Tillis has to win some Democrats to get another term. His problem is that if he votes for all of Donald Trump's nominees, he won't get many (or any) Democratic votes, and that will make winning very tough. If he votes against the worst of the worst, he could get primaried by someone claiming to love Trump more than he does. Tillis is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. In 2017, he voted for all of Trump's nominees, but they were far less controversial than this year's crop.
Voting on the nominees will only be the start of Tillis' problems. Lt. Governor Mark Robinson (R-NC), who ran for governor and lost, said he would leave politics, but you never know. He still has many supporters and they might encourage him to primary Tillis, especially if Tillis started voting against Trump's nominees and bills. If Robinson really quits politics, someone Trumpier than Tillis, like Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC), might consider a run, especially if Tillis refused to toe the party line on all votes.
Tillis beat Cal Cunningham (D) in 2020, but Cunningham suffered a zipper malfunction and that did him in. Tillis can't count on popular Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) having a zipper malfunction if he runs, as Democrats hope he will. Worse yet, the party in the White House often suffers heavy losses in the midterm, and that could hurt Tillis, especially against a popular former governor with excellent zipper control. (V)