Nov.25

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Is Trump The Next Orbán?

Many authoritarians don't take power in a military coup. They were elected by people who wanted them. The modern prototype is Hungary's Viktor Orbán. A member of Hungary's parliament who lived through Orbán's power grab, Gábor Scheiring, has written an article describing the playbook and warning that Trump may try to follow it. He notes that Hungarians didn't think it would happen—until it happened. There are two phases, which he calls the Software and the Hardware. First Trump will have to do the Software before he can start on the Hardware.

• The Folksy Outsider: The would-be authoritarian has to establish himself as an outsider who is a friend of the common man. Even though Trump is a billionaire, he has been working hard at this. Spending 15 minutes working at a McDonald's that was closed allowed for a photo-op showing that he was a man of the people. Folks who had worked at McDonald's or other restaurants could then see him as someone who cared about them. Of course, he doesn't give a hoot about them, but people who see him working the fryer think he does. That's all that matters.
  
  
• Anti-elitism: The common folk think the elites disrespect them (which is largely true), but it is important for the would-be authoritarian to emphasize this. Trashing ideas that the elites love but most people do not love, like having trans women on girls' sports teams, is a no-brainer. Sen. J.D. Vance, a Yale-educated lawyer, has even said universities are the enemy. We wonder how that went over back at his alma mater. But it doesn't actually matter how it went over in New Haven. It played in Peoria.
  
  
• Anti-immigrant: The authoritarian candidate needs a scapegoat to blame for the country's problems. Immigrants are an easy target, although there are others. They are especially easy if they look different than the majority, have a different culture, or speak a different language. It's their fault things are terrible and the solution is to get rid of them.
  
  
• Economic Nationalism: Here, globalization is the enemy. If we could only get free of the outside world and the forces controlling us from the outside, things would be better. Outsourcing production is part of that, so tariffs are needed to make production abroad too expensive and not viable. Ordinary folks are seen as hardworking, while plutocrats are seen as benefiting from globalization by getting cheaper labor abroad. That needs to stop.
  

Once the pump has been primed and ordinary people see the "problem" and have been informed of the "solution"—letting the would-be authoritarian run rampant without regard to rules or laws—then we get to the hardware.

• Strengthen Executive Power: The key here is to remove or weaken all the guardrails. Move as much power as possible to the leader. In the U.S. this is the theory of the unitary executive, which says that the president is in charge of everything in the executive branch and can order anyone in any agency to do his bidding, legal or otherwise. Anyone who objects is fired or arrested. Schedule F is designed to minimize the power of civil servants and maximize the power of the president. Checks and balances are so 18th century.
  
  
• Discipline the Judiciary: Independent courts are a potential problem, so they have to be reined in. Putting friendly people on the Supreme Court is a good start. Now the lower courts. With a compliant Senate, Trump will be able to install hundreds of judges who will rule as he wants them to, often without even giving explicit instructions.
  
  
• Change Election Processes: Manipulating rules for elections is up to the states and many of them are doing their best. Banning absentee voting or making it much harder, reducing the number of polling places in carefully selected areas so people have to wait for hours to vote (and banning anyone from giving people standing in line a free bottle of water), requiring IDs that poor people usually don't have, and much more helps here. Then the authoritarian can win future elections more easily.
  
  
• Control the Media: The media could be a big problem, so they have to be intimidated. It's not hard. Jeff Bezos and Patrick Soon-Shiong were certainly intimidated and their respective papers did not endorse the person their own editorial boards had already decided to endorse. Expensive and potentially crippling lawsuits for slander and other things could also help. At a certain point, the owner of every media outlet will get the message: Toe the line or be driven out of business. In Trump's case, co-opting Elon Musk, who then posted dozens of Trump-friendly messages each day to eX-Twitter, also falls in this category.
  
  
• Secure Control Over the Party: It is important that no rivals emerge within the ruling party to challenge the authoritarian. Having your daughter-in-law run the RNC is a good idea, if available.
  

Is there an antidote? Yes. The first line of defense is the courts. Until they have been entirely corrupted, they will issue rulings that undercut the leader. Openly defying the courts can reduce the leader's popularity, especially if the opposition makes a big deal about it.

The second line of defense is the media. This means not only newspapers and television stations, but also social media, which is the main source of news for many people. Folks who oppose the regime should become very active there and continuously put out the truth. They should also constantly point out all the lies and disinformation there. In many cases, Trump's followers actually have no idea what is true anymore. This is something anyone can do.

The third line of defense is alternative power sources. States and cities also have power, in particular the power to resist the leader in many ways and certainly the power to make news. Their leaders can criticize the authoritarian and explain to the people what he is doing that hurts their interests. Trump, for example, can't get rid of the nearly two dozen Democratic governors and many Democratic mayors of big cities. If they get together and keep harping on the same line, it could eventually sink in, but a consistent story is needed. For example, "all Trump cares about is enriching himself and his billionaire friends. He doesn't care about you at all." Just keep repeating that and keep coming up with examples of where he is hurting ordinary people (e.g., tariffs cause inflation). Another power source are the unions. There are others, but they have to focus on convincing people that the leader is not on their side.

Scheiring also has some specific ideas for the U.S. First, local organizations, including unions, must be strengthened and defended vigorously. Second, party and election financing should be shifted from wealthy megadonors to microdonors. Kamala Harris raised a billion dollars, most of it in small donations. That is a good start. Third, the Democrats have to take over some of Trump's populist ideas. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) can provide a list if anyone is in doubt. Fourth, elites have to stop calling ordinary people "a basket of deplorables" or "garbage." Calling the rich names is fine, but the working class has to be held out as the true hardworking Americans. Maybe go study FDR. He was rich but he figured it out. It can be done. In short, you don't protect democracy by talking about democracy. You protect it by protecting people and making it clear what you are trying to do and what the other side is actually doing. (V)