Dem
47
GOP
53
One thing that Donald Trump has promised and really means is that he will try to deport some immigrants. Not everyone who is in the country illegally. That is impossible, but he will deport enough people to show his base he means it. Blue states don't like this and will fight him. In fact, they are already preparing to fight him.
The first line of defense will be for the blue-state AGs to sue Trump in court when he tries to federalize the National Guard or use the Army on U.S. soil. They hope that when the courts issue injunctions to stop it, until the courts have ruled on the legality, he will stop. Of course, he might just ignore the courts. With a Democratic House, that would lead to impeachment, but with a Republican House, nothing will happen.
Of course, Trump's team wants to win those court battles rather than just defying a bunch of judges because his defying the courts could become a campaign issue in 2026. So, his lawyers are already working on plans to craft his XOs to be able to withstand court challenges. This is something he learned from his Muslim ban last time. One thing he will probably do is deactivate a mobile phone app called CBP, which allows immigrants to set up appointments to seek asylum. Until an undocumented immigrant has formally requested asylum, he or she has no protected status and can be removed. Arguing "but it was hard to make a request for asylum" is probably not going to work in court, if it gets that far.
Incoming border czar Tom Homan plans to ramp up raids on workplaces and other locations where undocumented immigrants tend to be found. When an agent addresses an employee and says: "Papers, please," the worker had better be able to whip out a U.S. passport or other proof of U.S. citizenship or legal residency. Otherwise, he or she will get pushed onto a bus that heads for the border (or a detainment camp).
If blue state governors order their National Guard units not to cooperate, Trump could invoke the Insurrection Act, which allows him to order the U.S. Army to operate on U.S. soil. Of course there will be court cases about that, but the Act does give the president that authority. Some libertarian senators, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), don't like the idea of the Army arresting Americans and they might ally themselves with the Democrats, but it is not clear what they could do except pass a resolution saying they don't like what is going on.
It is possible that Trump will not begin with a dragnet approach, but start with trying to find people who were convicted of a crime in their country of origin. That won't be so easy, since the country of origin is unlikely to cooperate. Still, Trump might claim that he's going after criminals, which would probably be supported by more people, even if it isn't true.
Some blue cities or states may declare themselves to be sanctuary cities or states and have their National Guard oppose federalized ones or CBP or ICE agents. The legality of this is untested. But Trump may not wait to find out. What he could do is simply cut off all manner of federal funding to the states. States can't run deficits, so this would force the states to cut essential programs while the courts sort this out. That would be fine with Trump.
Blue states are also preparing PR campaigns to try to win the war for public opinion. One tack will be to repeatedly say that if immigrants are deported, Big Ag will have to double or triple what they pay their workers, and this will result in grocery prices heading toward the moon. Given the election results, turning immigration into an economic issue might work well. It will be a nasty fight, but it is coming.
However, there is a downside for the Democrats here. Suppose lawsuits from blue states are successful and the courts block Trump's deportation plans. Then Trump will blame Democratic governors for foiling his plans. In 2026, many blue states will have gubernatorial elections, some for open seats. Then in 2026, Trump could spend a lot of time urging his supporters to elect Republican governors so he can deport illegals. This could make deportation a key issue in the gubernatorial campaigns. When a reporter asks a Democratic candidate for governor: "If you win, will you cooperate with the president in trying to deport illegals in your state or will you protect them," there is no good answer. A "yes" will anger Democrats and a "no" will anger Republicans. Either answer will anger some independents. There is no easy way out for Democratic candidates, especially when the Republican candidate says: "I will definitely obey any lawful order to detain people here illegally and turn them over to ICE." (V)