Nov.22

electoral-vote.com

Dem 47

   

GOP 53

Election Results: Casey Turns the Page

It's not quite there yet, but the 2024 election is close to being over.

The biggest news yesterday was that Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) conceded to Sen.-elect Dave McCormick (R-PA). There is a recount underway, and the results are expected today, but it is nearly impossible that a recount will produce a net of 16,000 (or so) votes for Casey. And if it somehow does, well, a concession has no legal significance.

It is remarkable that an experienced, and relatively milquetoast, incumbent senator in a purple state should lose to an inexperienced carpetbagger. This really speaks to the headwinds the Democrats were facing this year, even if they (and we) didn't know it until it was too late. Casey's "gesture" suggests he plans a future run for office, though at 64, he may not have too many practical options. The seat he's vacating won't come up again until he's 70, he presumably doesn't want to try to primary Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), and the governorship of Pennsylvania probably won't come open until 2030 (or maybe 2028).

Over in the House, meanwhile, another race has been called by most outlets. That would be the race in Alaska, where the uphill battle faced by Rep. Mary Peltola (D-AK) became an untenable battle. Rep.-elect Nick Begich III (R-AK) has been declared the winner, and Peltola has conceded. She's only 51, so she might be back in 2 years to try again.

With the Alaska race called, most outlets have the House 219-213 with three races uncalled. Here's a quick rundown of the still-in-doubt trio:

• IA-01: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) has a history of squeakers, having won her first election, in 2020, by just six votes. This time around, she's up about 800 votes over Democrat Christina Bohannan. A recount is underway, but a shift of 800 votes in a House race is about as unlikely as a shift of 16,000 votes in a big-state Senate race. Miller-Meeks is going to keep her seat.
  
  
• CA-13: At the last update (Wednesday afternoon), Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) was leading by 227 votes out of 201,000 cast. However, Democratic opponent Adam Gray has made up a fair bit of ground, which is not unexpected, since the votes still being counted are all mail-in ballots. The question is whether the ballots will run out before Gray can overtake Duarte. This one is a toss-up.
  
  
• CA-45: The story here is similar to the one in CA-13, except in this case, the Democratic challenger, Derek Tran, has already caught and overtaken the sitting representative, Michelle Steel (R-CA). Tran leads by 314 votes out of nearly 310,000 cast. The odds are pretty good that he's going to win this one.

In short, the best case for the Republicans is a 222-213 House, the best case for the Democrats is a 219-216 House, and the likeliest outcome is 220-214 and flip a coin for the last seat. This means the makeup of the 119th House will be effectively identical to the makeup of the 118th House, given the fluctuations that come from deaths, early retirements, etc. (Z)