Nov.22

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Nominations News, Part II: Is There Anyone Else Who Won't Make It through The Weeknd?

Let's take a look at what else is going on, on the nominations front:

• Another One Bites the Dust?: In all of U.S. history, a total of nine Cabinet nominations have been rejected by the U.S. Senate, while another 18 have been withdrawn once it became clear that rejection was inevitable. However, as you can probably guess, most of those 27 failures are of recent vintage. Bill Clinton had to withdraw five nominations, George W. Bush two, Barack Obama three, Joe Biden one, and Donald Trump five (four from his first term, plus Matt Gaetz). Given this history, not to mention the number of problematic nominees the President-elect has already put forward, it is likely that some of his other nominees won't make it. And now that Gaetz' nomination is dead, the forces of sanity can focus their attentions on the other godawful choices. So, Trump might just have two or three people break the record set by Bush and Linda Chavez (see above). Let's review the likeliest candidates to get axed.
  
  First, and most likely to come up short we think, is Secretary of Defense-designate Pete Hegseth. To start, he is completely unqualified to lead the Department of Defense, never having overseen more than a few dozen people (as compared to the nearly 3 million who work for DoD). It's one thing to put a rookie in charge at, say, the Department of Energy. It's another thing entirely to do it at Defense. Second, Hegseth has all kinds of ideas—ideas that are kooky, ideas that are sexist and ideas that are kooky AND sexist. Third, he has a sexual assault accusation in his past, one that he paid to settle. To most people, that reads as "guilty." Hegseth tried to downplay the incident and to claim it is fake news and that there is no substance to it, and so... the police department that handled the matter released the rather graphic 22-page police report. As we note above, sexual crimes remain a bridge too far for most voters, including Republicans. We really don't see how Hegseth's nomination survives.
  
  Second, there is HHS-designate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Mirror, mirror on the wall, among Trump's nominees, he's the kookiest of all. Every day, he seems to go all-in on yet another health-related conspiracy (yesterday, it was chemtrails). Like Hegseth, there is nothing in his background that prepares him to manage a massive bureaucracy (83,000 staffers, in this case). Junior is pro-choice, which will not sit well with some Republicans. And yesterday, there was yet another revelation about Kennedy's thoughts on Trump, expressed prior to making a deal for a Cabinet post. It would seem that Junior feels that Trump is "like Hitler" and that his followers are "outright Nazis" and "belligerent idiots." Oh, and since it's kind of a theme here, Kennedy also has some sexual misconduct in his past; he's effectively admitted to groping a woman without her consent.
  
  Third, there is DNI-designate Tulsi Gabbard. She has been flying under the radar a bit, but there are two big, very related problems with her (over and above the fact that she used to be a Democrat who badmouthed Trump, like RFK Jr.). The first problem is that she's probably a Russian asset. And whether or not she actually is a Russian asset is not particularly relevant, as long as people THINK she is. One impact of that is that U.S. intelligence personnel are likely to withhold some information from her. A second impact is that America's allies will definitely withhold information from her, and from the U.S. overall. The second problem is that Gabbard is an isolationist. So, she's likely to take a sledgehammer to the American intelligence apparatus, AND she's likely to withhold information from America's allies. This is not the profile of a successful spy chief, and remember, many Republican senators are hawkish and very much like a robust military and intelligence establishment.
  
  Finally, there is Secretary of Education-designate Linda McMahon. As with the other three people named here, she is unqualified for her post. However, the much bigger problem is that she's been implicated in a lawsuit that alleges she facilitated the sexual abuse of children as young as 13. Again, sexual misconduct is a bridge too far for many, many voters. Sexual misconduct against minors is a bridge even farther.
  
  These are the four nominees most likely to fail, at least as things currently stand. We doubt they will all fail, but we also doubt that none of them will fail. If we were setting odds, we'd put the over-under at 2½. Oh, and note that every single item we've linked here is news from yesterday. So, three of the four folks here have seen their positions grow weaker in just the past 24 hours.
  
  
• OMB: Donald Trump knows absolutely nothing about Project 2025. After all, he said so many times on the campaign trail, and he certainly wouldn't lie about a thing like that, right? In a remarkable coincidence, however, he has reportedly selected Russ Vought, the main architect of Project 2025, to be Director of the Office of Management and Budget. If Trump tries to use Schedule F to replace nonpartisan government employees with loyalists, then that would be a job for... the Director of the Office of Management and Budget. So many coincidences!
  
  
• USSS: The frontrunner to lead the Secret Service is reportedly Dan Bongino, who is currently a podcaster, but who used to be a Secret Service agent, and who has many ideas about how the agency could do better. Given how much Trump values his own hide, you can be fairly certain that he believes Bongino is up to the job. The President-elect doesn't give a damn if, say, the Department of Education collapses, but he really, really does not want to get shot. Again.
  
  
• Ambassador, Eh?: For arguably the most important post, at least from a national security standpoint, Trump has chosen former representative Pete Hoekstra. We speak, of course, of the ambassadorship to Canada, where Hoekstra will be the first line of defense against any invasion from the Great White North. Hoekstra is Trumpy, since that is the main (and really only) requirement for any job in the Trump administration. However, he's also an experienced diplomat, having served as the United States' representative to the Netherlands during Trump's first term. In other words, they're not all crazypants.
  
  
• Least Surprising News of the Week: Pollsters have started polling for how many Americans approve of each of Donald Trump's high-profile appointees. And, surprise, surprise, they are ALL underwater. After all, virtually all politicians are underwater these days. Further, Trump tends to delight in choosing obnoxious people. We'd be kind of surprised if any member of the administration gets above water, for even so much as a week, over the next 4 years.

That's the news. Good night, and have a pleasant tomorrow. (Z)