Dem
47
GOP
53
There were three big problems with Matt Gaetz' nomination to be Attorney General of the United States: (1) He's unqualified for the job and, really, anti-qualified, in that he has no interest in remaining above politics and/or enforcing the law without favor or prejudice; (2) he's got a long history of allegations involving sexual misconduct, including allegations of statutory rape and (3) he's an a**hole who is hated by pretty much every member of Congress. Yesterday, this list became too much to overcome, as Gaetz withdrew his candidacy.
Reportedly, the proximate cause of Gaetz' withdrawal was yet another new allegation of sex with an underage partner. However, even if that new reporting hadn't come to light, he was dead in the water. Donald Trump did a lot of arm-twisting, as did J.D. Vance and Gaetz himself, and there were too many Republican senators who would not move off their planned "no" votes. The names of four of those senators are known: Lisa Murkowski (AK), Susan Collins (ME), Mitch McConnell (KY) and John Curtis (UT). There is much scuttlebutt that there were at least a few more "nays," but these four were enough, coupled with the 47 Democrats.
Trump loves to be "historic" and to "set records," and he managed to do that here. No nominee has ever failed as rapidly as Gaetz did. The previous "record" was set by George W. Bush with would-be Secretary of Labor Linda Chavez; that nomination failed on January 9, 2001, when it leaked out that Chavez had knowingly employed undocumented workers to clean her house. Today is November 22, so Trump beat Bush's mark by nearly 7 weeks. Winning!
Anyone who fears the worst from a Trump presidency should be heartened by what happened here. First, we're less than 3 weeks from his reelection, and the Republican senators are already standing up to him. They might not defy him openly, and they won't die on every possible hill, but they aren't going to be just a rubber stamp. After all, some of them really care about their jobs and/or the country, and others will have to face voters in 2026, or 2028, or 2030, and answer for the choices they made and the votes they took. In particular, excepting Donald Trump himself, "accused of sexual misdeeds" is a bright, red line for many Republican voters. Any senator who supports someone like that does so at their own risk, either of being primaried, or of being hammered in the general election.
Second, Trump and his team very seriously looked at invoking the portion of the Constitution that theoretically allows the president to forcibly adjourn Congress, and then seating Gaetz and several of the other radioactive nominees through recess appointments. And, in the end, the President-elect and his advisors concluded it just wouldn't work, and would blow up in their faces both politically and legally. There is no question that Trump will push the boundaries of his presidential powers (as all presidents do, truth be told). There is also no question that he'll do some very concerning things. But when it comes to doing something that would actually be dictatorial, there are limits to what he can get away with. Even he and his enablers recognize that.
Trump & Co. clearly saw the writing on the wall with Gaetz, as they had a replacement nominee ready within hours of his withdrawal. The new AG-designate is Pam Bondi. She was the Florida AG for 8 years, from 2011-19, so she's orders of magnitude more qualified than Gaetz. Bondi has worked for Trump in various capacities over the past decade, including representing him as a lawyer (during his first impeachment, and in other matters), and also serving as a staffer on his transition team and other entities.
Bondi is probably best known, however, for the apparent quid pro quo wherein Trump donated to her reelection campaign, and she "independently" decided to drop a case against Trump University. So, she's at least a little corrupt, it would seem. Maybe more than a little. But, as compared to Gaetz, she looks like Sir Galahad (a.k.a. the "Stainless Knight"). And it's at least possible that she'll have limits to her sycophancy, the way that Jeff Sessions and Bill Barr ultimately did. Gaetz, by contrast, would have had no limits. On the other hand, she could prove to be as corrupt as Gaetz, but more competent, and thus more dangerous. Time will tell. In any event, we have no doubt that, barring some serious dirt coming out, Bondi will be confirmed. Based on current information, there are numerous appointees who are worse than she is, and there are only so many fights the senators can fight.
As to Gaetz, what's next for him? It is true that he was duly elected to the 119th Congress, and so he could theoretically return to the House. But it's not quite that simple, for two reasons. First, his rapid resignation was intended to bring an end to the House Ethics Committee's investigation into him, and to keep their report from being released. If he goes back to work, then the investigation comes back to life and the report may well come out. Whatever's in there, Gaetz clearly does not want it to see the light of day.
The other problem is that when Gaetz resigned from the 118th Congress, his letter also included the phrase "I do not intend to take the oath of office for the same office in the 119th Congress." That could very well be interpreted as a resignation from the 119th Congress. It's not clear if it is, or if it's even possible to preemptively resign like that. If Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) pretended he never saw the letter, and did not call a special election, and if the members of the House seated Gaetz in January, then he'd probably be OK. But, remember, he's an a**hole, and there may be folks who are not interested in helping him to play ball. In that case, he'd either have to go to court (where they do not much like getting involved in questions like this) or he'd have to run in and win the special election (he could probably do it, but with his sexual misconduct in the news, maybe not).
In the end, Gaetz' eye is on replacing DeSantis when his gubernatorial term comes to an end in 2026. In service of that goal, Gaetz could lobby to be the replacement for Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL). However, there's no particular reason to think the Governor is open to that, and it's also not clear that "I'm going to use the Senate seat for my own selfish purposes, as a launching pad" would actually help Gaetz with his aspirations. Much more likely is that Trump finds another, non-Senate-confirmed job for Gaetz, or else that Gaetz gets a job as a bomb-thrower on one of the right-wing cable channels/podcasts. (Z)